Commodity Week by WillAg.org and Illinois Extension, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Commodity Week

A weekly wrap-up of the agricultural markets, news, analysis, and weather.

Apr 16 | Commodity Week

Panelists
 - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
 - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net

The April 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, featured panelists Naomi Blohm, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick analyzing the current agricultural market landscape and the geopolitical factors influencing it. A primary focus was the potential shift in planting acres from corn to soybeans across the Midwest, driven by elevated input costs—specifically diesel and fertilizer—and compounded by heavy spring rainfall delaying field work. These fertilizer price spikes are being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have trapped shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf and prompted countries like India to heavily subsidize and secure global fertilizer supplies. The panel also evaluated grain marketing strategies, with Greg Johnson noting farmers still may be holding roughly 30% to 35% of their old crop corn in anticipation of a price rally. However, the experts warned that unless significant weather issues or war-driven crude oil spikes emerge by mid-summer, old crop basis could crash as elevators reach capacity ahead of the fall harvest. Consequently, they urged producers to consider moving their remaining grain sooner rather than later to avoid logistical bottlenecks and dropping prices.

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