May 26, 2015

Soybean Consumption & Production Prospects

The trade has turned its primary attention to the soybean crop being planted across the United States, but that doesn’t mean it has fully discounted last year’s harvest as market maker.


This year the United States Department of Agriculture expects about one-point-eight billion bushels of soybeans will be used within U.S. borders. This is more than last year and it appear USDA is on target with its projection. The pace of domestic crush has steadily picked up as the fiscal year has passed. University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good says the pace needs to pick up a bit more to make the target.

Quote Summary - To reach the USDA projection, the crush during the last four months of the marketing year needs to exceed that of a year earlier by 7.7 percent.

The NOPA crush estimate for May is scheduled for release on June 15, and that’ll offer more insight into domestic usage. The other primary point of usage is the export market for soybeans.

Quote Summary - The USDA projects that U.S. soybean exports during the current marketing year will reach a record 1.8 billion bushels, 9.3 percent more than the previous record of last year. With about 14.6 weeks remaining in the marketing year, cumulative USDA export inspection estimates have reached 1.722 billion bushels. For the first seven months of the marketing year, export inspections tracked Census Bureau export estimates very closely. To reach 1.8 billion bushels for the year, exports during the final weeks need to total about 78 million bushels, or about 5.35 million bushels per week.

The last five weeks have seen exports above 10 million bushels each. It very likely, thinks Darrel Good, that USDA’s export projection for soybeans will be easily met. This brings him to the ending stocks figure, or the number of bushels to be leftover at the end of the fiscal year in September. That number will be calculated and it could result in an adjustment of the size of last year’s crop, and then there is this year’s crop.

Quote Summary - Until very recently, few concerns have been expressed about the 2015 soybean production season. Planting has proceeded at a pace that exceeds the previous 5-year average pace and expectations have been for acreage to exceed intentions reported in the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report. The recent weather pattern, however, has generated a few issues. In particular, the area of extreme rainfall amounts in Texas and Oklahoma that extends into southern Kansas and parts of Arkansas have raised a few concerns about the timeliness of planting and the potential for some prevented planting. The focus is on Kansas due to the combination of the slow pace of planting (17 percent as of May 17) and the magnitude of soybean acreage (3.8 million) intended to be planted in that state.

For the U.S as a whole, there is some measurable yield loss as the percentage of the crop planted after May 30 increases. For the period from 1986 through 2014, the percentage of the crop planted after May 30 has ranged from nine percent (2012) to 66 percent (1995) and averaged 34 percent. With 45 percent of the crop reported planted as of May 17, the percentage of the crop planted after May 30 this year will not likely exceed the average of the previous 29 years due to the rapid pace of planting in northern growing areas. The impact, if any writes Darrel Good in his Weekly Outlook posted online to Farm Doc Daily, of the extreme wetness on the magnitude of planted acreage of soybeans should be revealed in the USDA’s June 30 Acreage report.


May 21, 2015

Anticipating Changes in Corn & Soybean Acreage

Twice a year USDA tries to officially predict how many acres of corn and soybeans U.S. farmers will plant. Todd Gleason has more on the anticipated changes this year as we move from the March Prospective Plantings survey to the June Acreage report.


May 15, 2015

Farmland Income for 2015

Farmers across the Corn Belt are going to make a lot less money this year than they have in the past. And, if something doesn’t change, things may be even worse next year.


May 09, 2015

First Day First Field Farmer

USDA describes Pat Whalen as a new and beginning farmer. We think he's just having fun planting his first farm field ever.


University of Illinois College of Law
May 05, 2015

The Flash Crash and the Hound of Hounslow

The U.S. markets went into free fall in May of 2010 dropping 6 percent in minutes, and then bouncing mysteriously back. There was a sense that the machines were out of control during this "Flash Crash".  Five years later, US criminal authorities and financial regulators are pointing the finger at a lone trader. Verity Winship tells us more about the case against the “Hound of Hounslow”.


May 04, 2015

Can Herbicide of Choice Still be Used Post Planting

The fast pace of corn planting in the state of Illinois has farmers and chemical applicators racing one another across the fields. University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager has this advise for farmers wondering what to do if the corn was planted before their residual herbicides were applied.


You may read Aaron Hager's thoughts on weeds and herbicides on The Bulletin website.


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