Two Billion Bushel Corn Carryout

May 10, 2013

USDA NASS projects 35 percent of the U.S. corn crop will start the season under drought conditions.USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board is projecting a record setting corn crop and 2013/2014 ending stocks. Here's an edited excerpt from the report, "Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96.  The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.  The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields.  Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13."

Those numbers all point to a 2 billion bushel corn ending stocks figure by the time the fall of 2014 arrives with an average season's cash price ranging from $4.10-$5.30 per bushel. This all despite the drought west of I-35 and the delayed planting season.