USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board is projecting a record setting corn crop and 2013/2014 ending stocks. Here's an edited excerpt from the report, "Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96. The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields. Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13."
Those numbers all point to a 2 billion bushel corn ending stocks figure by the time the fall of 2014 arrives with an average season's cash price ranging from $4.10-$5.30 per bushel. This all despite the drought west of I-35 and the delayed planting season.
Monday April 15, 2013 USDA released the first numbers on corn planting around the nation in the weekly Crop Progress summary.
Corn Planting Progress
Apr 15 5yr/avg
National 2% 7%
Illinois 1% 12%
Iowa 0% 3%
Nebraska 0% 2%
Minnesota 0% 2%
Inidiana < 1% 6%
The state statisticians from Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana provide audio commentary on regional conditions each Tuesday during our Closing Market Report.
Other items in the crop progress reports; Iowa received 2.9 inches of rainfall last week., and Nebraska 1.3 inches; it snowed across Minnesota. Expected 3 day rain totals this week (Tuesday-Thursday) in parts of Illinois and Iowa exceed 3 inches. See for yourself in the photo or on NOAA's website.
Yesterday Iowa State's Elwynn Taylor tweeted: "IA now exceeds the 100-yr ave for “winter” season precip. Drought ended in SE but still more needed elsewhere." If you are a twitter user you can follow him @ElwynnTaylor. You can follow Todd Gleason @CommodityWeek
The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers conducts an annual study of farmland prices and cash rents. As part of this process, the Society asks its membership what cash rents will be for the upcoming production year. Society members indicate that the 2013 cash rents for farmland with expected corn yields over 190 bushels per acre will be $396 per acre, up $17 from the 2012 rent of $379 per acre.
University of Illinois Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey studies the survey. You can read more from him on the FarmDocDaily website, or listen to his discussion with Todd Gleason using the links below.