WILLAg Notes

April 24, 2015

Protect Backyard Chickens from Avian Flu

More people than you might think are keeping chickens in their backyards. These birds, just as those grown commercially, are at risk to the H5N2 Avian Influenza virus

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April 21, 2015

Will Soybean Consumption Reach USDA Projection

Last year U.S. farmers harvested a record sized soybean crop. The price of soybeans plummeted, but not yet as far as the most negative nellies expected. There is a glimmer in some of the USDA numbers that might explain why.


 


April 19, 2015

An Argument for $4.25 New Crop Corn

University of Illinois ag economists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin have posted an article to the FarmDocDaily website making the case for $4.25 new crop corn. We've posted the accompanying supply and demand table along with one paragraph (Implications) from there case. 

Follow this link to read the whole article.

 

...from the FarmDocDaily Post

Implications

Our current projected 2015-16 corn balance sheet points to an ending stocks-to use ratio of 10.5 percent. That compares to ratios ranging from 12.0 to 14.3 percent implied by other balance sheet or price projections. Some of the difference with other projections lies in different balance sheet projections. Our projected yield and crop size is smaller than projected by others and probably smaller than expected by the market. In addition, our projection of 2015-16 marketing year consumption is 50 million bushels larger than the latest USDA projection and 150 million bushels larger than the FAPRI projection. Finally, others may draw different price implications from the same projections of production, consumption, and ending stocks. The USDA, for example, appears to be expecting a much weaker demand structure than what we forecast. That weaker demand would be expressed as a leftward shift in the relationship between the price of corn and ending stocks-to-use. Our analysis suggests there is potential for new crop corn prices to move higher if: i) this year's growing season points to a U.S. average yield at or below trend value of 164 bushels; and/or ii) demand is not as weak as some appear to be assuming. We maintain expectations for a 2015-16 marketing year average price near $4.25.


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