Nov 09 | Closing Market Report

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The November 9, 2026, episode of the Closing Market Report covers agricultural commodity markets, public soybean breeding programs, and global weather forecasts. North Dakota State University agricultural economist Frayne Olson analyzes shifting fundamentals in the corn and soybean markets, highlighting the transition toward watching consumption, export demand, South American weather, and the construction of a new carbon-capture ethanol plant in North Dakota. University of Illinois plant breeder Eilian Monteverde explains how public universities develop and integrate beneficial genetic traits into high-yielding soybean lines for licensing to commercial seed companies. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics provides an agricultural weather outlook, detailing favorable fall harvest temperatures in the U.S. Corn Belt and tracking improving soil moisture conditions across South American growing regions.

02:00 Ag Market with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University
14:00 Commercialized University of Illinois Soybean Varieties
17:39 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the ninth day of November, 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets. We’ll do that with Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University and with extension there. We’ll also talk about the weather forecast with Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics. Along the way, I’ll discuss plant breeding, soybeans in particular, from the United States and the University of Illinois—what happened to public varieties like Corsoy and Williams, and how those are now transferred into the commercial system. We’ll do all of that right here on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org.

announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

announce: December corn for the day settled at $4.39 and a quarter, down two and a quarter cents. March at $4.52 and a quarter, down three. May corn at $4.60 and three-quarters, two and a quarter lower. January beans, five and a half lower, settlement price there at $11.88 and a quarter. March at $11.95, down four and a quarter. Bean meal, $1.50 higher. Bean oil, 23 cents lower. Soft red winter wheat at $5.88, down three and a quarter for the December contract. Hard red December at $6.32 and a half, finished unchanged on the day. Live cattle futures, $2.15 higher. Feeders up $5.80, and lean hogs up $2.35. Crude oil, $87.59 a barrel, down $3.25. The wholesale price of gasoline, 10 cents lower at $2.67 and a half. Diesel fuel, six and four-tenths lower at $4.26 and six-tenths of a cent for the day.

02:00 Ag Market with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University
Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Frayne Olson, agricultural economist at North Dakota State University and with extension there. Hello, Frayne. Thanks for being with us. Let’s talk about the fundamentals of the marketplace, because it’s not clear to me, at least at this point for corn, soybeans, and other products too, if the fundamentals have really changed or not. There will be some who argue that is the case, but it appears to me that the market has moved lower—but not substantially—because of a fundamental change in supply or demand.

Frayne Olson: We are obviously getting daily updates on what’s happening globally as well as within the US. We always look to the USDA numbers as another reference point; that’s our anchor in our discussions. Fundamentally, for corn specifically, we’re still going to have the second-largest corn crop in history. Last year was number one. We are still debating and arguing over what that exact number is, but the market fundamentally is making the psychological shift from looking at production numbers and trying to zero in on how many bushels we really have, to suddenly focusing on the consumption side. We are going to start watching the consumption numbers. One of the things I watch specifically is the exports number because that’s one of the most difficult to forecast. We tend to have a lot of uncertainty with that when countries and companies come in and start buying US grains. Obviously, politics and trade agreements have a huge role and impact on that as well. If we’re going to get some shocks to the marketplace, a lot of farmers think about the supply side of the shock system, and that’s definitely a legitimate place to look. But we also have the demand side. Domestic demand tends to be pretty stable, but the export market doesn’t. The other thing is we’re shifting from watching the weather here in the US, and very soon we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about the weather in Brazil and Argentina. So, we’re in this funny transition zone from looking specifically at US production to what’s happening in the rest of the world, and more importantly, what we are going to do on the export front.

Todd Gleason: What are you watching closely?

Frayne Olson: Obviously, the two big crops, corn and soybeans. Right now, corn is the one that has taken the biggest hit from a pricing standpoint. My viewpoint is that a lot of that is psychological. The corn market is being impacted by what’s happening in the energy markets. We’ve talked in the past about how investors use pre-packaged index funds as a way to diversify their portfolios. They come in and out based on what’s happening in the energy markets, but they get a chunk or portion of the grains as well. So, I do think a lot of the downside we’ve had over the last couple of weeks has been psychological in nature. I also look at the export market fundamentals. At the end of the day, fundamentals do win. We had some export sales of corn to Mexico last week, and there was an announcement of another pretty decent sale this morning. To me, that’s an indication that international buyers looking at the market right now are saying, “I think this is a good buying time. I think it’s a good time to take some additional coverage. We know we’re going to need the corn.” That’s a signal that we’re priced right. As we start getting more international business, that will turn the marketplace, and I think we will have some upside movement shortly.

Todd Gleason: What kind of bounce do you expect given no surprises in tomorrow’s USDA report?

Frayne Olson: Well, again, that is a pre-assumption that we don’t get any major shock to the system tomorrow, and I’m not anticipating anything, to be very blunt. I’m not looking at a huge recovery. I do think we’re going to see a bottom form, and we’re going to start to see rebuilding. In my opinion, we really won’t get solid strength in the corn market until we get a better read on the size of the Brazilian corn crop, at least their first crop corn. To be honest, I think that will probably take until December before we get a better read on that. So my best guess is we’re probably looking sideways with a little bit of support moving forward. The other thing that I am watching closely is that President Trump and President Xi are going to meet again at the Asia Pacific Summit coming up at the end of November. There was an announcement this morning that Bessent and Lighthizer, the two chief negotiators on the US side, have met with their Chinese colleagues and are putting pressure on them, saying, “You haven’t been fulfilling the agreements that we had so far.” We’ll see what happens with those negotiations. I’m not expecting any new numbers to come out, but I do think there will be some pressure put on the Chinese to at least start fulfilling their agreement to purchase $17 billion of US ag products. Historically, corn has been one of those commodities that has really benefited from those trade agreements.

Todd Gleason: That will put a lot of pressure on the end of November, because it also coincides with the arrival of the third aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf area and possibly the resumption of a hot war, depending on what happens in Iran. You’re certainly watching that. All of those things, including the Ukraine war, have had an intense impact on the marketplace. For soybeans, particularly as it relates to vegetable oils or oil production, how do you put all of that into context for that crop?

Frayne Olson: Soybeans are a little more complex. Returning to the fundamentals, particularly Chinese purchases, China is by far our number one customer. Even last year, with all the trade issues, China was still our number one soybean buyer. That is our dominant market. Mexico is also a critical market because they are number two on that list. On a sidebar, the discussions on USMCA are still going to be really important as we move forward, and I am watching that as well. Coming back to the global issues, corn is one of those crops that you don’t have to process to use it. If I’m a corn buyer in Mexico, Japan, or Korea, that corn can go almost immediately into the feed supply or a processing center. But for soybeans, for it to be useful as a feed ingredient or human food in the form of oil or renewable fuels, it needs to be processed first. So the trade dynamics on soybeans are a bit different. You need to have that crushing capacity to take advantage of soybeans and soybean products. We have a lot of flexibility in who buys from whom in the corn market, but not so much in soybeans. The soybean oilseed complex in general is going to be much more linked to the weather in Brazil. There are parts of Brazil, as always, that are a little dry, and parts that are a little wet. Those rumors and stories are going to be hotly debated, and we’re going to see some price volatility, but again, not until that crop gets large enough that we start to see a weather impact. So the dynamics in soybeans are going to be a bit different.

Todd Gleason: Do you see corn finding support and soybeans maybe not in that case?

Frayne Olson: Not necessarily. If you look on a percentage basis, soybeans have not come down nearly as hard as corn has. In an absolute dollar amount, it’s dropped more. But moving a dollar or a dollar and a half off a $12 soybean is very different than moving a dollar plus off $5 corn. Soybean prices have softened, but not to the degree corn has. I do think as we start to find this bottom in corn, soybeans will follow.

Todd Gleason: Speaking of corn, one more thing to ask you about. I know there was an announcement that a new ethanol plant would be built in the southwestern corner of North Dakota. Correct?

Frayne Olson: That is a really great question. The short answer is carbon. They’re building the ethanol plant very near the Bakken oil formation. There is a carbon capture project going on right now in that region. When they did their math, they determined it might be easier to locate an ethanol plant near the formation where they can capture the carbon and ship the corn in, rather than trying to take the CO2 and ship it through a pipeline to where the formation is.

Todd Gleason: Somebody had asked me that question, and that is the answer I gave them. I thought that might be the case.

Frayne Olson: It is truly the case. That is going to be a massive facility. Depending upon the numbers floating around, it’s anywhere from a 240 to 280 million-gallon plant.

Todd Gleason: I would assume that your cattle producers are not happy about that, or we will see how that develops.

Frayne Olson: Actually, from what I’m hearing and seeing, the cattle we have up here is primarily cow-calf, which is more range-based. There are some producers who do backgrounding or raise yearlings, and they do use some DDGs, but given the size of that facility, they will be looking at larger sales volumes. We have plenty of co-products in the state to feed our cattle, so they’re not complaining too loudly.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.

Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure visiting. I always enjoy it.

Todd Gleason: Indeed. I’ll talk with you again next month. That, of course, is Frayne Olson. He is an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University.

announce: The Closing Market Report is a production of Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where today you may sign up for the December Illinois Farm Economics Summits. The Farm Doc team and I will be on the road again in the month of December at four places across the state, including Mount Vernon, Sherman, DeKalb, and Peoria. Make sure you register today.

14:00 Commercialized University of Illinois Soybean Varieties
Todd Gleason: Have you ever wondered if universities still develop public variety crops like Williams soybeans from the University of Illinois or Corsoy from Iowa State? Well, the answer is that they do, and they don’t. Most agricultural universities have crop breeding programs. The University of Illinois soybean program is headed up by Eilian Monteverde. It’s dedicated to developing and releasing high-yielding commodity and specialty soybean varieties that meet the evolving needs of farmers, processors, and consumers.

Eilian Monteverde: The way the university works is that we license varieties to other companies, so we don’t commercialize varieties directly. Right now, the company that commercializes most of our varieties is called Northern Star. We also have some varieties that are high oleic, low linolenic that currently are sold by the company Beck’s Hybrids.

Todd Gleason: The high oleic, low linolenic traits were originally developed by the University of Missouri. These traits enhance the healthiness of soybean oil and extend its shelf life. The traits were initially sourced from the soybean germplasm bank housed on the University of Illinois campus. Monteverde explains it used to be that finished varieties, for example Williams, were developed and released by universities. Mostly, that’s not how it works today.

Eilian Monteverde: In the public network, what we do through a process that takes years of lab, greenhouse, and fieldwork is try to put those genes into our already high-yielding or high-performing lines. That process takes a lot of time and resources. Then, once we have varieties that are high-yielding, adapted, and possess those genes, companies license those lines, usually to use as parents in their own breeding programs.

Todd Gleason: Essentially, public breeders, as part of their work, provide breeding stock to seed companies. It takes a great deal of time and knowledge to introgress these genes into existing high-yielding varieties. University plant breeders explore the germplasm bank constantly looking for new genes that might or might not improve a crop. It is something companies will not do, but it provides a public good companies can use.

17:39 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the growing regions across the planet. Mark Russo is here to help us out with that. He’s at EverStream Analytics. Hello, Mark. Thanks for being with us again.

Mark Russo: Hello there, Todd. Thanks as always for having me.

Todd Gleason: Starting in the Corn Belt, I don’t know that it gets better than this past weekend for us in the month of November, but it sure looks like there may be a few days this week that could get there.

Mark Russo: Totally agree here, Todd. The weather this fall across not only Illinois but the entire central US has been amazing. It’s subjective, but personally, the warmer and drier it is, the better. There is going to be some temperature variability coming up. There is still no sign of a turn to any real cold patterns, and on top of that, this generally drier pattern looks to continue. The only real rain this week will be associated with a system in the middle of the week. That will be followed by a brief cool down, but temperatures will quickly warm back up. This stretch of favorable harvest weather and just a good pattern for being outside is going to continue for a while.

Todd Gleason: We need daytime highs to be in the 40s, maybe the mid–50s, and nighttime temperatures in the 30s to get the soil temperature at the 4-inch level down to 50 degrees and cooling permanently. Is that going to happen this week?

Mark Russo: The window of opportunity for that to happen will be late this week and over the weekend. There will be three days of highs only in the 40s, minimum temperatures in the 30s, and some of northern Illinois will see temps in the upper 20s. But as we go through next week, temperatures quickly rebound and get back to a pattern of highs in the 50s and low 60s, and minimums in the 40s.

Todd Gleason: Good enough. Where should we head to next? What’s on your list?

Mark Russo: Let’s move all the way down to South America, where the item of late has been some parts of the northern Center-West trending a bit drier, and soil moisture has declined over the past couple of weeks. The southern part of Mato Grosso and Center-West Brazil has continued to receive rain and they have normal soil moisture at this time of year. As we look ahead for this week and next week, it’s net improvement across the board as rain activity will be increasing across all of Center-West. In fact, much of Center-West will receive normal to above-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, boosting soil moisture and continuing to provide generally favorable growing and late planting conditions. In Southern Brazil, where it had been on the wetter side and caused some brief localized planting delays, they turn less active coming up. That’s an ideal pattern for them. As of now, whether it’s Brazil or down in Argentina, we don’t have any immediate concerns and are not seeing any threatening patterns over the next few weeks.

Todd Gleason: With the understanding that this El Niño is stronger than most, is what’s happening in South America typical of an El Niño?

Mark Russo: We’ve seen some similarities. Every El Niño provides a different flavor of impacts across South America, let alone all areas of the globe. Historically, with El Niño events, over the course of the growing season you tend to have a drier bias across the northern parts of Center-West Brazil and up into the Amazon River basin, and you tend to have above-normal rainfall across Argentina and Southern Brazil. We have seen those general tendencies, although it has not resulted in any significant impacts up to this point. We don’t really see that changing anytime soon, meaning this pattern of favorable growing conditions looks like it continues across South America for the time being.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.

Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd. Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with EverStream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where today you can sign up for the December Illinois Farm Economic Summits. The Farm Doc team and I will be on the road with those summits in Mount Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb. Register today at WILLAg.org. Also there, you’ll find daily information from the animal scientist, the crop scientist, and of course, the agricultural economist. You have a great afternoon. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.