Nov 11 | Closing Market Report

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The November 11, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report opens with a Veterans Day tribute and a rundown of daily commodity prices. The program features an interview with Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing, who discusses post-harvest grain movement, noting that farmers are holding tightly to corn while evaluating soybean price risks. Matt Wells of the Midwest Truckers Association then explains the tightening global supply and refinery issues currently driving up diesel fuel costs. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global agricultural weather outlook, highlighting conditions for midwestern anhydrous ammonia application, optimistic crop prospects in South America, and returning moisture across dry regions of Europe. Throughout the broadcast, host Todd Gleason also promotes registration for the upcoming December Illinois Farm Economics Summits.

02:20 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
10:19 Perfect Storm of Events Drives Diesel Prices Higher
15:04 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 11th day of November 2026. It’s Veterans Day. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Originally proclaimed as Armistice Day by President Woodrow Wilson in 1919, this date marks the end of World War I on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. In 1954, it was renamed to honor all American service members across all conflicts. We thank all veterans for their service today.

Now coming up in this half hour, we’ll talk about the commodity markets of course. We’ll do that with Greg Johnson, he’s at TGM. We’ll discuss the weather forecast too with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, and we’ll hear from the Vice President of the Midwest Truckers Association. Oh, and I’ll remind you, if you’ve not already, to register for the Illinois Farm Economics Summits. That’s the IFES series that will take place at four different sites across the state in the month of December: Mount Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb. If you’ve not registered yet, do so today. All the information is online at willag.org.

announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.48. That was a penny lower. The March at 4.60 and a quarter, down one and a quarter, and May futures down a penny and a half lower at $4.68 and a quarter. January soybeans, $12.30 and three quarters of a cent, up two and three quarters. The March at 12.38, three and a half higher. Next year’s November beans down five and a half cents at $11.88 and a quarter. Bean meal futures up 3.20 at 329.70. The bean oil, 63.88, a dollar and 11 cents higher. Soft red winter wheat, six and three quarters higher in the lead December at 5.99 and a half. The hard red December, 6.39 and a half, up five and a quarter. Live cattle futures, 12 and a half cents higher, feeders up a buck 12 and a half, and lean hogs are 22 and a half cents higher for the day. Crude oil at $86.50 for the West Texas, up 45 cents. The Brent is up $1.22.

02:20 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, that’s Total Grain Marketing, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello Greg, thanks for being with us. Pretty large draw area, a lot of it to the north and to the east of you, around 60 miles from right here in Champaign. Anybody still running?

Greg Johnson: Yeah, we’ve still got three or four guys running. People are finishing up, they’re trying to get ahead of the projected rainfall this afternoon, but it looks very scattered and very light. Even if people don’t get done ahead of this little front that comes through, I don’t think they’ll be out of the field very long, and so we should be able to finish people up by the weekend, I would hope.

Todd Gleason: I made a trip to St. Louis yesterday and back. I am pleased to report that I only saw three rigs running for anhydrous ammonia, and it’s not that I saw a lot of knife tracks already, so they’re waiting for that 50 degrees and below. Good on farmers, they’re doing the right thing. Fantastic for that. They have had a good fall to do a lot of fall work though too. I think they have been really, really busy. Have they been talking to you very much in that process about marketing, particularly after yesterday’s USDA reports?

Greg Johnson: Yes, the producers have locked the doors on the corn bins. We are not going to see corn move anytime soon in my opinion. We lost a dollar ten in the price from September 1st to right before the report. We gained ten cents of that back, but we’re still a dollar off of the highs. And most farmers, especially in this area where we had the lower yields, you know, yields were down 20 to 30 bushels from last year. The USDA did reflect that yesterday in their numbers. They did lower Illinois’s yield by eight bushels. I think the farmers are in agreement that the Illinois yield needed to come down.

But nevertheless with less bushels to sell, I think they feel like even at these prices, it’s still too cheap and my running joke is that farmers will sell corn when it’s $5 or when they need the money, whichever comes first. They don’t need the money today so they’re not selling corn today. I think the corn movement is going to be very, very slow. We’re going to see basis levels improve to try to get corn to move out of the country elevators and out of some of the farmers’ hands if the futures market isn’t going to do the work.

Soybeans on the other hand, even though we are probably a dollar twenty off of the highs, twelve dollar beans still isn’t a bad price considering the kind of yields we had. We had very good if not record yields of beans here in central Illinois, and so I would argue that twelve dollar beans times 75 bushels is a moneymaker. Not to say that beans can’t go up a dollar, but they can also go down a dollar. South America is going to be planting more beans. If we don’t see China buy some more US beans, we could have a little bit more of a surplus than what we think we have right now. Bottom line is, soybeans could go a dollar higher or a dollar lower. I know that’s not very profound, but I guess it’s my way of saying that corn doesn’t have as much downside risk as the beans do, whereas both have upside potential.

I think worst case scenario for corn for the next couple of months is it just goes sideways. I don’t think it goes lower. I think the funds completely bailed out of their record long position, they’re actually somewhat short right now. Not to say they can’t add to that short position but I don’t know why they would now that harvest is wrapping up; that’s not usually the time to go short if you’re a speculator. So I would say that the corn market is sideways at worst and higher at best, whereas the beans, you throw a dart at the wall, beans could go up or down. There are arguments to be made on both sides of that commodity.

Todd Gleason: How long do you think that producers will need to wait on corn to make a move? I’ll give you a caveat on this because Ed Usset, Ag Economist from the University of Minnesota, needled me earlier today and said, ‘Hey, in the November report released yesterday, you did see that Minnesota has a 204 yield and Illinois has a 200 bushel yield. They’re up river from us. They have more bushels than they normally do. So they might be in that soybean situation like we are here and letting some of those go.’ I also said the last time that happened where Minnesota out-yielded Illinois was 2015.

Greg Johnson: Yeah, I think the two things that could make corn prices work higher is going to be an even lower yield. There’s been some precedent for that when the government lowers the November yield from the October yield, there’s a historical precedent to see that go even lower in the final report in January. So that’s still two months away, but that’s one potential thing that could get corn to go higher. That’s on the supply side. On the demand side, obviously we need to see exports pick up.

I think China, you know, we talked about China before, they’re the wildcard. They haven’t bought corn from the United States in quite a while, but with all the trade talk negotiations going on, I guess that’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that China could buy a little bit of US corn to satisfy part of that 17 billion dollar obligation that they supposedly agreed to. We’ll have to wait and see on that. But like I said, even if they don’t buy corn, it’s just hard for me to imagine that after seeing a dollar sell off in the corn market and the funds getting out of their entire long position that there’s much more downside potential in corn from these levels.

Todd Gleason: Do you think China will be in the market before the end of the month, or before at least the APEC meeting, the Asia-Pacific meeting that both President Xi and President Trump will be attending, and are scheduled to talk trade or at least talk at, and I’m sure trade will be among that. China has had a habit of buying going into these kinds of negotiations.

Greg Johnson: Yeah, I would like to think so. I obviously don’t have any inside information as to when they’re going to buy, but if I’m China, I want to buy at the low, as cheap as I can, and corn is as cheap as it’s been in quite some time. So if they were going to buy, it wouldn’t surprise me that they would step in and buy some here. But obviously they probably want to get something in return for that. And that might be lower tariffs on the products that they sell to us, and so all that may take time. It may not happen right away, or it could happen right away. I wish I knew, but I guess we’ll just have to stay tuned.

Todd Gleason: Anything in particular out of the crop production or the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate reports, other than what we’ve already talked about that piqued your interest yesterday?

Greg Johnson: Well, I’m hearing that Nebraska is that state that has some concerns, and I’m just wondering, they did lower the yield in Nebraska by four bushels from 188 to 184. A lot of people seem to think that that may not be low enough. I think the Nebraska yield is one to keep an eye on. I tend to agree with the Illinois number, taking it down from 208 to 200. There may not need to be much more of a reduction there, but Nebraska is our number three corn state, and if they lower that a little bit more, that could lower the US yield as well. That’s something to keep an eye on, but again we won’t see that until the January report.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.

Greg Johnson: Thank you Todd.

Todd Gleason: That’s Greg Johnson, he is with TGM, that’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator system that belongs to Growmark FS right here in Illinois and Indiana.

10:19 Perfect Storm of Events Drives Diesel Prices Higher

Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about the price of diesel now. It’s been creating some new challenges of course for agriculture and transportation alike. Matt Wells, Vice President of the Midwest Truckers Association, says several factors have come together at once to tighten fuel supplies and push diesel prices higher.

Matt Wells: You tie in everyone’s reserves getting bled down. We had some major refinery changes in the United States. Two major refineries were shut down in California. A major refinery in Joliet was shut down for over 7 to 10 days. And then throw in the fact that Ukraine and Russia, this war has extended into the Russian territory, and Ukraine was very successful in destroying or damaging a number of Russian refineries, has really put a constraint towards the middle and end of September on fuel supplies in the world. So we’ve seen these fuel prices jump up very quickly, and the industry has been grappling with them the best we can.

Todd Gleason: He says the higher costs will eventually work their way through the supply chain.

Matt Wells: Eventually what’s going to happen is it’s going to trickle down to the consumer and the final bill payer. In the ag world, that’s going to be the farmer. It’s going to be a painful situation when you raise a fundamental price like this. I don’t think we’re going to see fuel prices drop very rapidly anytime soon, just because that refining and reserve capacity has to be built back up even after refineries come back online and are able to do some things.

Todd Gleason: And while some hope prices will retreat quickly, Wells says the industry should prepare for elevated fuel costs well into the future.

Matt Wells: It’s a difficult time and there’s no easy answer here other than rates are going to have to change and fundamental costs are going to have to be factored into everybody’s playbook or business plan over the next year, year and a half, until things normalize. But as we’ve always seen with any fuel price surge, no matter how high or how long it has went, and obviously this is the highest and might be one of the longest increases, it never really ever quite gets back down to the price it was before.

Todd Gleason: The Midwest Truckers Association rep says President Trump’s declaration for the use of red dyed diesel on roadways sparked some misconceptions, particularly about how that diesel differs from conventional diesel.

Matt Wells: It’s different. And it is not different. A few years ago, it may have had more sulfur in it, but today, red dyed diesel is the same as clear diesel that people put in their pickup trucks or semis, just when it leaves the racks, and the racks is where the refinery loads semi trailers. When it leaves the rack, if it is to be off-road diesel, they literally just put dye in it. With the increased fuel prices, some states started allowing their farmers to utilize red dyed diesel on the road. The reason why is because you don’t have to pay the motor fuel tax on it. So it would relieve them of having to pay taxes.

Todd Gleason: Again that was Matt Wells, Vice President of the Midwest Truckers Association. Our thanks go to NAFB members Stephanie Hoff and Caesar Delgado for providing the audio and the script. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on this Wednesday afternoon. Do visit our website at willag.org where you can register again today for the Illinois Farm Economics Summits. The ag economists and I, the FarmDoc team, will be on the road in mid-December. We’ll be in Mount Vernon, along with Sherman, which is near Springfield, East Peoria, and DeKalb for the annual Illinois Farm Economics Summits. That’s the IFES series. You should be there, your banker most certainly will be there. They’ll have all kinds of really interesting things to discuss, including an in-depth look at 45Z. You know that that has been driving the soybean market. You’ll want to know how, why, and what that also means for ethanol plants. We’ll take care of all of that during the Illinois Farm Economics Summits. The cost is $80, registration is available right now on our website at willag.org. The theme music by the way for the Closing Market Report is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

15:04 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner from World Weather Incorporated is now here to talk about the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Hello Drew, thank you for being with us on this Veterans Day.

Drew Lerner: Yeah, and happy Veterans Day to all those that are out there and have served the country and or are serving, and I really want to just thank you for doing that.

Todd Gleason: Indeed. Let’s talk about the weather forecast. Start in the Midwest. Temperatures I think probably will drop far enough in the northern two thirds of the Corn Belt that producers will be able to safely apply anhydrous ammonia. That’s 50 degrees and below. Four inches down, below bare soil. Although I think, and it’s not that it’s all that dry, it’s just it hasn’t rained in a while, that they wouldn’t mind having a little rain in the top soil as well to get those knife tracks sealed up. What do you think’s coming in the next week for them?

Drew Lerner: Yeah, for this first week of the outlook, it’s going to be kind of borderline. I think almost everybody west of the Mississippi River probably going to be dry until we get out towards maybe this time next week, actually they’ve got about seven days. But they’ve got more moisture, I think, than the lower Midwest does. The lower Midwest is fairly dry. We do have some shower activity that is coming with this cool down, but it’s really not well organized moisture, and it’s going to run traces upwards to maybe three or four tenths of an inch at the most. I think a lot of it is going to just be borderline enough to really help in the manner you’re looking for. But every little bit helps, I suppose.

Maybe a week from now there will be another storm system that will have a better potential to bring some moisture into the region. That system may be held back until the end of next week, as it’s probably going to be in the western Corn Belt and the plains first, and that’ll be about this time next week. At the end of next week, going in the following weekend, that’s when we’ll get our first better precipitation event. And a fairly decent one, maybe some half to one and a half inch amounts are going to be possible with that. But it is going to cool down, and we are going to see freezes all the way down into the Tennessee Basin here for Friday and Saturday morning. It’s going to be pretty nippy down that way. Pretty cold even up in the upper Midwest. Some teens are going to be up that way. Afternoon temperatures though will certainly rebound into a favorable range though.

Todd Gleason: If my understanding is correct, those cold temperatures, are they coming from the unique, well relatively unique system that’s flowing eastward into those areas and providing cold?

Drew Lerner: There it’s really a byproduct of the polar vortex split that occurred in late October and the first days of November, and that sent a lot of cold air out of the stratosphere down into the Arctic area of the Northern Hemisphere. Since then it’s been trying to work its way to lower latitudes, but the majority of the Northern Hemisphere has been so warm this autumn, that that cold that’s coming around is just not enough to counter all the warmth that’s occurred. So we are getting a little surge of cold to come across parts of the US, but it’s going to be very short-lived. And even though it sounds pretty nasty cold, it’s not that unusual for this time of year, it’s just that we’ve been so warm for so long that we all forgot what normal is. Nonetheless, the freezes in the Tennessee River Basin are usually something we see just a little bit later into the season. But we will be seeing those temperatures down in the 20s coming up.

Todd Gleason: Now something that we talked about every 45 days last year was a cool weather system that just was persistent and dropped back into the United States. That started I think in the fall of 2025. Do you see anything like that developing?

Drew Lerner: Not yet. That is an intra-seasonal weather pattern. And we get those in a lot of these years. They usually do start in October and November. Usually it takes a few weeks to identify the pattern and sometimes, last year it was 45 days, in fact last year it was a very dominating pattern, it was very predictable. It just occurred routinely all the way into the summer. In other years we’re not quite so fortunate. Sometimes it’s hard to identify the pattern, sometimes it’s something like 60 days or 50 days, whatever. And you have to wait for the rhythm in the atmosphere to reveal itself. So I don’t see anything at the moment that we can put our finger on, and with El Nino being so strong and dominating right now, it may be hard to find those patterns this year.

Todd Gleason: Sometimes a super El Nino means really good things for South America. Sometimes really bad things. Sometimes a mix. What do you think this year?

Drew Lerner: Well, you know, so far, it’s not been bad. I think the media has done a really good job to try to make some issues out of the weather down that way. We had a very nice early season start to pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms, and that was in September. A lot of guys got in the fields and started planting early, and then it got pretty dry for a little while after that, and it was pretty scary looking, but most of those crops managed to get through that dry period, and we’ve had scattered showers and thunderstorms resume since then. They’ve been erratic, not well distributed. There’s still dryness in the subsoil. But the crops are viable, and we’ve got an increase in rainfall coming up here over the next week to maybe 10 days, and everybody is going to get some moisture. Some areas are going to get some pretty impressive amounts. Others will just do okay. But the bottom line is that this will be a great stimulant for the crop and it will really jump into action and we’ll see some aggressive development. So in answer to your question, I think that we may be surprised about how well South America has done or will do this season.

Todd Gleason: Tell me about Europe and any changes that are taking place there.

Drew Lerner: Yeah, you know, it’s been, gosh, nine months since it’s really rained decently on a consistent basis in some areas in France. Now I don’t want to imply it’s been dry for nine months, but it has been just horribly drier than normal during that time period. We’ve had a real hard time getting rain to fall, and when it’s fallen, it’s been very brief and followed by a prolonged period of more dry weather. But that is changing right now, and we’re going into a fairly active pattern here for all of Europe. It’ll be a little slow going over the next four or five days, but by this time next week, Europe will be seeing a lot of precipitation. France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and many of the dry areas from Slovakia and Hungary down into Romania will all get moisture. And even farther to the east in Russia’s southern region, we’re going to see some relief to prolonged drier biased conditions. It’s pretty late, and I should point out that the soil temperatures are cool enough that we’re seeing semi-dormancy now for a lot of the winter crops from Eastern Europe into Russia’s southern region. But this moisture will still help those crops for a little while yet this autumn, and then more importantly in the spring. So there is a fairly good chance that we will see some improvement in all of these areas by the time we get to 2027’s spring season.

Todd Gleason: Thank you so much, Drew. I really appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: You bet.

Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, and helped us wrap up this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report. It is Veterans Day. Thank you to all of those who have served our country. We appreciate all that you have done. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.