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In this episode of the Closing Market Report, host Todd Gleason breaks down the November USDA WASDE and Crop Production Report with Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing, highlighting unexpected drops in corn yield estimates, stable soybean numbers, and their resulting impacts on global ending stocks. Next, conservation agronomist Torey Colburn from the American Farmland Trust discusses the economic and soil health benefits of reduced tillage, emphasizing how fewer tractor passes can save farmers money while preserving vital soil structure and preventing phosphorus runoff. Finally, meteorologist Don Day of Day Weather provides an agricultural weather update, detailing a significant cold front and freezing temperatures moving across the Northern Plains and the Midwest.

0:00 USDA WASDE and Crop Production Report
01:11 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
08:15 The Dollars and Sense of Reduced Tillage
20:18 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather 

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0:00 USDA WASDE and Crop Production Report

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the tenth day of November 2026, USDA report day. I'm Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about this morning's crop production and WASDE reports with Naomi Blohm. She's at TotalFarmMarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We'll discuss tillage passes and the number of tillage passes that producers are making in their fields with Torey Colburn of the American Farmland Trust. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast, too. We'll do that with Don Day. He's at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. All on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLag.org, where today you can sign up for the December Illinois Farm Economics Summits. Join the farm doc team and myself as we go on the road to Mount Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb this winter.

announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

01:11 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing

Todd Gleason: This morning, the United States Department of Agriculture updated the crop production and world agricultural supply and demand estimates. There were few changes for the wheat numbers, though the season's average cash price did drop by a dime to $6.20. Corn's cash price for the season dropped by a dime as well, now $4.60 rather than $4.70. This despite the fact that there was a yield drop of 1.6 bushels to the acre to 179.6 bushels, and the production was down 141 million bushels in total. For soybeans, the numbers were a little better, despite a change to the upside in yield, 53.3 from 53.1 bushels to the acre, which added about 12 million bushels in total production. The price of soybeans for the season is expected from USDA to go up a dime to $12.10.

Naomi Blohm is now here to take up these numbers and talk about the USDA figures and how they impacted the market through the midday. She and I are talking early today because I have to travel to St. Louis this afternoon. Hi Naomi, thanks for taking time early with me today. Tell me about the USDA report that came out at 11:00 AM Central.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so that report today definitely friendly for both corn and soybeans. So that was a surprise, where that yield number for corn coming in even a little bit lower than the average estimate. Which, even though the USDA lowered some of the demand for corn, they lowered demand for feed and residual, they lowered demand a little bit for exports, but because the production overall on corn was lowered, ending stocks now at 1.758 billion bushels, down from 1.85 last month. So that's quite supportive.

And with the soybeans, you know, they did raise the yield like we thought, but just not quite as much as what trade was thinking. So that, coupled with a slight increase in demand for exports, made ending stocks shrink. And trade thought ending stocks were going to get larger. So we went from 315 last month down to 300 million bushels this month. So that really helped to, in my opinion, solidify that we finally have a harvest low in place. I don't know that we're going to go racing straight up from here because we need some additional friendly news. But technically speaking, I think that the low is here. And I mean, we talked last week how Mexico bought all that corn, and historically when they come in and buy those big amounts, it does have a tendency to be near a market price low, and then prices have a tendency to work higher afterwards. So very welcome news after the bloodbath that we saw in October, that we now have a harvest low in place, and it looks like we are going to see prices grind higher from here.

Todd Gleason: Because you already mentioned the USDA did lower the corn export figures, you're looking for those to increase. When do you think that will take place, and why do you suppose that the USDA and you differ on the outlook for exports?

Naomi Blohm: Well, I think they made modest adjustments for this go-around just to be able to account for the fact of the lower yield. So I do think in future reports that export sales number can go higher. Export sales, though admittedly, they have been a little sluggish prior to this Mexico announcement. But I think they're going to pick up again because now the global end users are going to be thinking, oh, the Americans maybe don't quite have as much as we were hoping for. And now it's going to put that conversation pressure back on South America to have to have things perfect for their growing season because our cushion just got a little smaller here. So I do think you're going to see daily flash sales of corn export sales pick up all the way from now probably into the end of November and early December. And then maybe on the December WASDE, we'll see the export demand pick up again a little bit for corn based on USDA data.

Todd Gleason: What kind of changes did you see in the global outlook?

Naomi Blohm: Well, what I thought there was, so let's just take a look at the soybeans first. When it came to the production side, Argentina, no change to soybean production, nor Brazil. So I think the USDA did a good job of, you know, saying it's a little too soon to need to change anything. And I thought it was interesting, they made no changes to China's imports of what they're going to be needing for soybeans. But global ending stocks for soybeans down just a little bit. It was 124.28 million metric tons, and now it's 123.5. So now that's also giving the soybean market that little bit of support today. And on the global side, we did see the corn ending stocks increase just a little bit. The USDA increased production potential for Argentina and Brazil. So that was a little bit different, and that's what gave corn the cushion. But of course, those are things that can change depending on the weather in South America in the coming months.

Todd Gleason: I suppose on that coarse grain outlook, particularly for the globe, that you would be interested that in their thoughts, they call coarse grains, that would be all nearly unchanged for production. With increased trade, though consumption was lower, but the increased trade, I assume, was probably what you have been thinking about maybe as it related to all coarse grains, corn included.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah, absolutely. So just all of those little different facets, those little nuances that ebb and flow slightly ever so much between every month. But it's just that reminder of where we need to be weather watching in the world, keeping an eye, of course, on what's happening with El Niño not just for South America, but as it would pertain to Southeast Asia, as it would pertain to India. So I think the biggest takeaway, though, from today is that the negativity is now needing to come out of this marketplace. I think we'll see the funds come back in as buyers for corn. I think that they'll probably come back in as buyers for soybeans because we're always one weather issue away from a major production failure, so we have to keep an eye on global weather all around the world, especially now that the USDA gave us this friendly report on the American side of production.

Todd Gleason: Okay, thank you much Naomi. I really appreciate it.

Naomi Blohm: Thank you.

Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm is with TotalFarmMarketing.com. She is in West Bend, Wisconsin, and joins us here on the Closing Market Report each and every Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music, by the way, is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

08:15 The Dollars and Sense of Reduced Tillage

Todd Gleason: You know, falls when farmers go to the field maybe more often than needed. This is particularly the case as it's related to the economics of tillage. The ag economists here at the University of Illinois have been collecting data for more than a decade from about half a million grow crop acres in the state. It simply shows the more tillage passes made, the less economically productive the farm becomes. It costs a lot of money for the big tractor to pull heavy machinery. All that soil structure destruction doesn't really help either. Thanks to Torey Colburn. He's from the American Farmland Trust and is its Midwest conservation agronomist.

Torey Colburn: So my main function as conservation agronomist is provide the agronomic support, technical assistance to farmers throughout the state of Illinois who are implementing cover crops, reduced tillage, and other soil health practices. I provide them with that agronomic support. So if they have questions about when or how to implement something, or if they're trying to troubleshoot an issue or something that they run into through the course of implementation, then I help them kind of decide what decisions to make or how to make some adjustments so that they have a more successful experience.

Todd Gleason: How does reduced tillage reduce sediment and nutrient movement from fields?

Torey Colburn: Reductions in tillage, either the number of passes, the depth, or how aggressive it is, can typically result in immediate reductions in soil loss from the field. That's kind of the big part of it. So tillage will destabilize soil aggregates, which is kind of what makes up the structure of the soil, and tillage passes will destabilize those aggregates, and then that soil becomes subject to being lost with wind or water erosion. And when we lose that soil, the nutrients that it contains goes right along with it, usually ends up in a road ditch or in a creek or, you know, whatever, and it finds its way to our rivers and our lakes and farther on. So by cutting out tillage passes, either the number or the depth or how aggressive you're running that piece of tillage equipment, you're keeping those soil aggregates in better condition and not putting them in a situation where they're prone to being physically lost from the field.

Todd Gleason: Given all of that, what does the research tell us about the benefits to water quality from reduced tillage systems?

Torey Colburn: Yeah, well the primary nutrient that we'd be losing as a result of tillage is going to be phosphorus. Phosphorus is held pretty tightly to soil surfaces, and then the loss of that soil carries that phosphorus with it. And there's two kinds of phosphorus that we kind of talk about. There's the dissolved reactive phosphorus, which is what crops will actually use. That is also the form of phosphorus that can be prone to causing algal blooms and so forth in local water situations. But by keeping that soil in the field, we're keeping as much of that total phosphorus in the field as possible. So even if we're losing soil into surface waters, it's taking with it total phosphorus that may not be plant available but eventually becomes available as it progresses through that water system. So it can still have downstream impacts. But if we can keep the soil on the field as much as possible, we limit the amount of downstream effect that we'll potentially be having.

Todd Gleason: Are there impacts also on the nitrogen cycle?

Torey Colburn: There are. So that's one of the things that we kind of have seen historically, particularly from a springtime tillage pass, especially in front of corn, is that that tillage pass introduces a lot of oxygen into that soil profile. And then with that, the soil microorganisms get pretty excited. And when they get excited, they get hungry, and they begin to mineralize a lot of nitrogen from the organic matter and the crop residues and so forth that exist in that soil. So you do get a significant boost in nitrogen while those soils are warm and active in the spring. And that does create a significant flush of nitrogen that your corn can use. But at the same time, the downside of that is that historically what that has done is it has burned up a lot of the inherent organic matter in soils across the state. And we're not necessarily getting quite as much of a nitrogen influx at that time as we once did, and therefore we have to kind of supplement that with fertilizer.

Todd Gleason: Are there factors related to soil that would determine whether reduced tillage might be a success on a field or not?

Torey Colburn: I would say the first thing that you need to ask yourself is why this tillage pass that I'm considering eliminating, why am I making it in the first place, right? What is my purpose in doing it? Is it for weed management? Am I trying to incorporate fertilizer or lime? Am I looking to address some sort of like specific compaction issue? Or is it something that I've had farmers tell me over the years is, well, you know, that's what dad and grandpa have always done, so that's what I do too. Or I've even had farmers tell me that, you know, I got to pay my hired guys in the fall after harvest, I got to pay them anyway, so we put them in the tractor and put the chisel plow behind them and turn them loose. So ask yourself, is that a legitimate reason to be conducting that tillage pass? Or do we need to reevaluate?

The other thing is like soil types, topography, they play a key role in how quickly any particular field may respond to a reduction in tillage. Not all soils respond the same to tillage, and therefore they don't respond the same to a reduction in tillage. Timber clays, in my experience, are sort of the prime candidate for eliminating tillage passes whenever we can. Any benefits that I've seen from tillage on some of those more heavy timber clays, any benefit that the tillage pass provides is kind of short-lived. And a lot of times it can just make problem areas even worse. Got to think about your crop rotation. Moving to a minimum till or a no-till system for soybeans is much easier than it is to do the same thing for corn. Corn is a much more fickle crop to raise, it does not like to have adverse conditions early on in its growth. So I think the easy button, if there is one, is to reduce the tillage or eliminate the tillage for the soybeans, and then look for additional steps to take where you can cut back on tillage before corn. Cold turkey is probably not the method of choice to go with reducing tillage in front of corn, but certainly with soybeans, it's much more plausible.

Todd Gleason: When you're talking to producers about reducing their tillage, what things do they tell you?

Torey Colburn: Yeah, I hear a lot of things like, well, if I don't till it, it's going to make the soil tight, right? And that might be something that is a temporary thing. I understand what they're saying, but at the same time, the reason that soil gets tight is because it doesn't have good soil structure, and the reason it doesn't have good soil structure is because it's had too much tillage over the years. So I hear that a lot. I hear a lot of, well, we need to till it to loosen it up to fluff that soil to get the water to soak in. And I just have to kind of chuckle and shake my head at that one, because the reason the water doesn't soak in is because the soil doesn't have enough pore space, and if it doesn't have enough pore space, it's because the aggregates have been broken down and doesn't allow that water to infiltrate. So I guess the other thing too is when you know we throw around terms like no-till and reduced till, the name is reduced tillage. It doesn't have to be no-till. A lot of times we'll say reduced till, and everybody assumes that means we're not going to be doing tillage. That doesn't have to be the case. You know, tillage can be a tool, and it can be used prescriptively and still have some good benefits, but we have to understand that there are some negative negatives that come along with doing tillage passes, and we just have to account for that and follow it with good and corrective management.

Todd Gleason: How long do you suppose typically it takes to find a measurable soil health improvement once you've reduced tillage?

Torey Colburn: Well, I think it kind of depends on what is being classified as a soil health benefit. Things like reductions in the amount of erosion from a field, those things can be seen essentially right away, especially when you pair it with cover crops like we said before. Generally, what we say is it takes three to five years for very observable changes in soil structure or pore space or aggregation. And cover crops can speed that process up. But I think, moreover, beyond soil health benefits, some of the more agronomic things like better weed suppression or better water infiltration, some of those things that maybe a farmer might be able to just pick up from the tractor cab, some of those things you start to see within the first year or two. But then to get some of the more, I don't know, abstract things, it can take three to five years typically before some of those things are maybe realized by the farmer.

Todd Gleason: Anything else?

Torey Colburn: The other thing that reducing tillage does for us, one, it's a labor thing, right? If we just talk about the economics of raising a crop, if you can eliminate tillage passes, you're eliminating hours on the tractor, you're burning less diesel fuel, you're not putting as many man hours in. So it can be a bottom line thing too. A lot of the very successful no-tillers that I've worked with or communicated with over the years say that, you know, the economy is kind of what forced them into it. They had to look for ways to save money, so they started eliminating the tillage, and then they realized that, hey, this is working okay, and maybe I didn't need to do all that tillage all along. So yeah, I would just emphasize a lot of those types of things, and just some of the real concrete agronomic things that a farmer will observe, like eventually being able to reduce some of your fertilizer or reduce your herbicide costs, things like that that go right along with reducing the tillage and bringing cover crops along with it.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, Torey.

Torey Colburn: Alright.

Todd Gleason: Torey Colburn is the Midwest conservation agronomist for the American Farmland Trust. By the way, if you'd like to learn more about how reduced tillage impacts the economics of the farm, you can do so by tuning into the Precision Conservation Management webinar hosted on the seventh day of April this year. Just search FarmDocDaily.illinois.edu for Precision Conservation Management, and it should pop up. You can watch that webinar and learn more about reduced tillage and the work that's been done over the last 10 years related to the economics of those tillage passes.

20:18 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather

Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the weather forecast for some of the growing regions across the planet now. Don Day is here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Thank you, Don, for being with us. First, because I often think that the weather you have is going to end up in my world at some point, what's your day like today there?

Don Day: Well, it's beautiful. It's been a beautiful fall in many areas of the US, as we well know. And what's interesting about the weather that's headed towards the Corn Belt in the Midwest here in the days ahead, it actually isn't coming from the West. You need to look to the North and to the Northeast, as we have kind of an unusual situation developing to where a trough of low pressure forming in the northern Great Lakes is going to tap into air from eastern Canada and even Greenland. So it's about ready to turn quite a bit colder.

Todd Gleason: Oh, when will that happen?

Don Day: Well, it'll be happening here especially Thursday night into Friday and Saturday. We're going to see freezing temperatures move into a lot of the northwest Corn Belt, the northern Plains. We could even have temperatures in the lower 30s, low into the 30s, all the way down to northern Alabama, northern Mississippi, parts of northern Georgia by Saturday morning. So this will be the biggest shot of cold air so far, bar none, this fall season. And while we don't see a lot of moisture with this cold snap, there will be some of the first snows in the Great Lakes, parts of New England, and even the high Appalachians all the way into the Carolinas could see some snow.