Closing Market Report logo

Closing Market Report

Today's wrap-up on the agricultural markets: news, analysis, and weather

Apr 13 | Closing Market Report

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Risk Premium & N Supply Chain Issues
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai

The April 13, 2026, closing market report highlighted the impact of international geopolitical tensions on agricultural commodities. Analysts noted that recent blockades involving the United States and Iran injected volatility and risk premiums into the markets, initially pushing corn and wheat prices higher while temporarily weakening soybeans. Given these built-in risk premiums, market experts recommend that producers begin executing their old and new crop marketing strategies, aiming to price at least twenty percent of their grain to capitalize on the current environment.

Domestic planting progress is advancing at a strong pace, particularly in the central and southern Midwest, with expectations of average or slightly above-average planting progress overall. However, the global conflict has raised significant long-term concerns regarding nitrogen and urea supply chains. While the vast majority of fertilizer for the current spring season was priced before the conflict escalated, analysts warn that sustained high fertilizer prices will likely limit fall applications and significantly impact acreage and crop rotation decisions for the 2027 growing season.

Weather patterns continue to present varying challenges across key agricultural regions. The western hard red winter wheat belt continues to suffer from a lack of meaningful rainfall, pushing crop conditions closer to dire levels. In the broader Midwest, the southern belt is experiencing drier conditions conducive to rapid planting, while central and northern areas remain slightly wetter. Internationally, incoming rains in Argentina are expected to slow the corn and soybean harvests, whereas the Safrinha crop areas in southern Brazil are entering a drier pattern that will soon require moisture to maintain adequate soil conditions.

★ Support this podcast ★

Apr 09 | Closing Market Report

- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Resistant Waterhemp, maybe Metribuzin
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net

The April 9, 2026 closing market report covers agricultural commodity markets, weed control strategies, and Midwestern weather forecasts. Analyst Matt Bennett characterized the day's USDA WASDE report as largely uneventful, noting ample global corn supplies and continuing competitive pressure from South American soybean exports. University of Illinois weed scientist Aaron Hager then detailed the increasing resistance of waterhemp to Group 15 and PPO-inhibiting herbicides across the state, advising producers to consider metribuzin as a viable and cost-effective alternative for residual control. Finally, meteorologist Mike Tannura highlighted severe drought conditions currently impacting over half of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop. He forecast upcoming rain systems that will primarily benefit eastern, lower-elevation areas of the Plains while leaving western regions dry, alongside additional precipitation expected to move into the Corn Belt during the planting season.

★ Support this podcast ★

Apr 08 | Closing Market Report

- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Higher Fuel and Fertilizer Prices & Farmer Sentiment
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

The April 8, 2026, Closing Market Report highlights that corn and soybean prices have decoupled from sharply lower crude oil prices following a temporary ceasefire in the Iran conflict. Analysts advise farmers to lock in current commodity prices, as large carryouts are expected unless a summer drought occurs. Concurrently, economists warn that elevated fuel and fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict will likely persist into the fall, although recent bridge payments and minor commodity rallies have temporarily improved overall farmer sentiment. On the weather front, the Western United States faces long-term water supply concerns due to low snowpack, which could lead to a dry summer in the Plains, while immediate heavy rains in the Midwest threaten to delay spring planting. Internationally, agricultural weather is improving, with Argentina receiving a beneficial dry period and Brazil's safrinha corn utilizing an extended monsoon season.

★ Support this podcast ★

Apr 07 | Closing Market Report

- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- John Deere Updates Right to Report & DEF
- Gerald Mashange, University of Illinois
- Don Day, DayWeather.com

The April 7, 2026 Closing Market Report highlights significant concerns regarding geopolitical tensions with Iran and their impact on agricultural commodities. Total Farm Marketing's Naomi Blohm notes that traders are squaring positions ahead of an impending deadline with Iran, closely watching crude oil resistance levels. University of Illinois agricultural economist Gerald Mashange elaborates on this "escalation trap" in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that damage to energy and fertilizer infrastructure could cause prolonged supply chain disruptions and price spikes akin to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


In agricultural news, John Deere announced software updates complying with new Environmental Protection Agency guidelines to allow farmers temporary overrides on emissions and diesel exhaust fluid equipment during critical operational windows. 

On the weather front, Don Day from DayWeather forecasts much-needed rain for the drought-stricken winter wheat regions in the Southern Plains. This precipitation is expected to move northeast across the Corn Belt, though central and western parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas may remain largely dry.

★ Support this podcast ★

Apr 06 | Closing Market Report

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai

Trading on April 6, 2026, was quiet, reflecting slight price gains in corn and soybeans alongside a dip in wheat futures. Market analysts expect the upcoming USDA WASDE report to indicate tighter corn stocks driven by strong demand, offset by a potential slight increase in soybean carryout. Geopolitical tensions continue to support commodity prices through war premiums; however, analysts warn of significant downside risks once the crop is successfully planted.


Elevated fertilizer costs, with anhydrous ammonia projected at $860 per ton for the 2027 crop, combined with record board soybean crush margins at $2.43 per bushel, strongly favor a continued shift toward soybean acreage. Despite expanding domestic crushing capacity and bullish price scenarios, weak cash basis levels act as a red flag regarding the longevity of current futures rallies. Agricultural economists advise producers to proactively hedge or secure forward contracts to lock in profitable new-crop prices—such as November soybeans at $11.50 to $11.60 and December corn near $4.80—warning that historical trends frequently show prices deteriorating before harvest.


In the U.S. Corn Belt, widespread weekend rainfall successfully replenished soil moisture, creating favorable conditions and steady soil temperatures for the upcoming planting season. Conversely, prolonged dryness remains a major concern for the Hard Red Winter Wheat regions of the Plains, with upcoming forecasts offering only scattered and localized precipitation. In South America, an active late-season weather pattern is causing minor harvest delays for corn and soybeans across Brazil and Argentina. However, the added moisture is exceptionally beneficial for the critical growth stages of Brazil's safrinha, or second crop, corn.

★ Support this podcast ★

Apr 01 | Closing Market Report

- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Ag Markets with Greg Johnson

The recent USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks reports were largely neutral for corn and slightly friendly for soybeans. Currently, the market is being driven by geopolitical headlines, with money flowing out of commodities and into equities due to expectations that Middle East tensions may ease. Significant damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure for crude oil and natural gas, a key fertilizer input, will take years to repair. This damage is expected to keep transportation and input costs elevated, contributing to inflation and likely delaying any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Because planted acreage is high enough to meet demand under normal yield conditions, future market movement will heavily depend on actual yields and the actions of investment funds, which are currently holding near-record long positions. Farmers are advised to consider pricing new crop soybeans in the mid-$11 range.


How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create | farmdoc

The EPA recently announced new Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) that will increase biomass-based diesel mandates by roughly 60% for 2026 and 2027. Meeting these new mandates will require between 50 and 60 billion pounds of feedstock, consuming approximately half of the world's total supply of fats and oils. This massive increase in domestic demand for soybean oil is expected to push US crush capacity to its absolute limit. Consequently, the US soybean market is pivoting away from exports, which are facing stiff competition from cheaper Brazilian supplies, toward domestic consumption. This transition is highly bullish for domestic pricing, supporting the farmdoc team's projection of an $11 season average cash price.


Ag Weather with Drew Lerner

In Brazil, the safrinha, or second crop corn, in the north is well-established but will rely heavily on existing soil moisture as the monsoonal rains wind down. Southern safrinha areas are currently dry but still have opportunities to catch rain from passing frontal systems. Meanwhile, in Argentina, a shift in weather patterns has brought heavy rain to previously dry areas. Parts of the country, particularly central Buenos Aires, are now too wet, stalling the sunseed harvest and creating potential quality issues. In the United States, the lower Midwest and northern Delta are expecting multiple waves of significant rain and cooler temperatures, which will likely delay early spring fieldwork. Conversely, dryland crop areas from Texas to Nebraska will see a break from extreme heat but are forecast to remain critically dry for at least another week to 10 days.

★ Support this podcast ★

Mar 31 | Closing Market Report

- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- WILLAg News Update
- March USDA Hogs & Pigs Report Analysis
- Don Day, DayWeather.com

Program Overview

  • Program Name: Closing Market Report
  • Date of Broadcast: March 31, 2026
  • Host: Todd Gleason from the University of Illinois Extension
  • Network: Illinois Public Media (available online at willag.org)
  • Focus: The show provides comprehensive coverage of agricultural markets, industry news, livestock updates, and weather forecasts tailored for the farming community.

Program Elements

  • Ag Markets Analysis: The core of the episode focuses on the release of the USDA's Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Host Todd Gleason details the survey results, noting a 3% decrease in intended corn acres and a 4% increase in intended soybean acres compared to the previous year. Guest Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com provides expert analysis, explaining that the reports fell mostly within expectations and failed to trigger any dramatic market shifts, leaving corn and soybean prices relatively range-bound.
  • WILLAg News Update: This segment covers several key agricultural news items:
    • The EPA's release of the final renewable fuel standard volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which was well-received by major agricultural groups for creating demand for biofuels.
    • The EPA's action to remove problematic sensor requirements for diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) systems, aimed at preventing equipment downtime during spring planting.
    • A report by Mike Davis featuring Blaine Nelson from Farmer Mac, discussing how AI and digital technology are making farm loan underwriting faster, more transparent, and less costly.
  • USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report Analysis: The program reviews the latest livestock data, highlighting a slight year-over-year increase in total hog inventory despite a drop in the breeding herd. University of Missouri agricultural economist Jason Franken provides commentary, noting that producers are relying on increased efficiency (record pigs per litter) to manage supply as they financially recover from 2023 losses.
  • Honoring WWII Flying ACE "Bud" Anderson: A unique segment featuring audio from General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, honoring Colonel Clarence Emil "Bud" Anderson, a highly decorated World War II fighter pilot who recently passed away at age 102. Gleason uses the moment to encourage listeners to support and thank veterans.
  • Ag Weather Forecast: The show concludes with a weather outlook from Don Day of Day Weather. Day forecasts a wet start to April with significant rainfall expected across much of the Corn Belt, heavy spring snows in the northern states, and beneficial moisture for the western U.S., though some areas in the central plains will remain dry.
★ Support this podcast ★

Mar 30 | Closing Market Report

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Drought & Workers Strike May Reconfigure Beef Processing
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai Weather

The March 30, 2026, Closing Market Report details agricultural commodity performance, processing challenges, and global weather conditions.

Market Performance

  • Corn and hard red winter wheat futures closed lower, while soybean futures experienced mixed results.
  • Live cattle, feeder cattle, and crude oil prices finished higher, contrasting with downward movements in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.

Commodity Outlook

  • Market participants are positioning for the March 31 USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks reports, which will establish benchmarks for acreage and demand estimates.
  • Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, specifically involving Iran, are anticipated to sustain elevated energy prices and inject broader economic volatility.
  • Livestock markets currently remain supported by the approaching summer grilling season.

Beef Processing and Supply Chain

  • A worker strike at the JBS processing plant in Greeley, Colorado, is forcing the reallocation of fed cattle to alternative facilities, primarily in Texas and Nebraska.
  • The strike is exerting short-term pressure on fed cattle markets, with the potential to negatively impact feeder cattle prices if the disruption is prolonged.
  • The broader beef industry continues to contend with packing overcapacity relative to shrinking cattle inventory, alongside long-term drought concerns in the western United States.

Global Agricultural Weather

  • U.S. Plains: The hard red winter wheat crop is facing critical stress from extreme soil moisture deficits and record-high temperatures.
  • U.S. Midwest: Conditions are highly favorable for summer crop planting, driven by an active weather pattern that is actively replenishing soil moisture without introducing unseasonable cold.
  • Black Sea Region: Winter crop development in Eastern Europe and Russia is progressing well with improved topsoil moisture, though subsoil moisture deficits from previous dry spells remain an area to monitor.
★ Support this podcast ★