Commodity Week by WillAg.org and Illinois Extension, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Commodity Week

A weekly wrap-up of the agricultural markets, news, analysis, and weather.

Sep 11 | Commodity Week

Panelists
 - Matt Darragh, Kpler
 - Ellen Dearden, AgReview
 - Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk

The September 11 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason of University of Illinois Extension, examines international grain logistics and the market fallout from the USDA’s September crop production and WASDE reports. Matt Darragh of Kpler begins the program by detailing the severe constriction of Black Sea export capacity caused by escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, explaining how damaged deepwater ports, war-risk premiums, and failed ceasefire negotiations have restricted a third of the world's wheat export volume and forced global buyers to seek alternatives in Australia and Argentina. Market analysts Garrett Toay of AgTraderTalk.com and Ellen Dearden of Ag Review then dissect the domestic and international balance sheets. Toay assesses the USDA’s production estimates, highlighting a historic November soybean/December corn spread that faces seasonal correction as harvest ramps up, while anticipating longer-term demand support from domestic crush and the Renewable Fuel Standard. Dearden closes the analysis with a focus on corn, evaluating a reduction in harvested acres, regional yield variations across the Midwest, European import demand following a severe drought, and pricing targets for producers managing on-farm storage versus commercial delivery.

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Sep 03 | Commodity Week

The September 3 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Matt Bennett, Shane Holtorf, and Sherman Newlin analyzing current agricultural market conditions. The panelists report that extreme heat is rapidly drying out corn and soybean crops across the Midwest, leading to widespread expectations that upcoming USDA yield estimates will fall due to variable weather damage throughout the season. They are not convinced the hot weather is doing anything more than drying the corn down faster. Alongside domestic crop challenges, the group highlights global market drivers, including potential Super El Niño impacts on Brazilian production, ongoing Black Sea export disruptions, and strong Chinese demand. Despite these bullish supply-and-demand factors, all three panelists advise producers to secure currently profitable prices through incremental new crop corn sales while maintaining flexibility with call options to capitalize on potential future market rallies.

Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Windsor, IL
- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing - Alta, IA
- Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge - Hutsonville, IL

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Aug 27 | Commodity Week

The August 27 edition of Commodity Week highlights the extreme variability of this year's corn and soybean crops, prompting panelists to urge farmers to capitalize on unexpected late-summer market strength. Analysts advise producers to execute cash sales now to secure cash flow and bin space, using call options to maintain upside potential if winter rallies occur. Moving forward, the market remains highly vulnerable to significant external risks, including the fragility of politically driven Chinese soybean purchases, the potential for Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) to undercut domestic biofuel usage, ongoing Black Sea supply disruptions, and long-term weather threats to South American production.

Panelists
 - Mike Castle, StoneX - Kansas City, MO
 - Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag - Naperville, IL
 - Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing - Morton, IL

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Aug 20 | Commodity Week

In this August 20th edition of Commodity Week, our panel—Dave Chatterton, Brian Stark, and Greg Johnson—evaluates the market's transition from a weather-induced, supply-driven rally to one heavily dependent on post-harvest demand. With recent excessive rainfall in Central Illinois and Indiana compounding earlier moisture stress, the panel anticipates corn and soybean yields will fall short of the USDA's optimistic August estimates, keeping local crop sizes challenged but far from a total disaster. As the trade awaits final figures from the Pro Farmer crop tour, attention is shifting toward demand wildcards, notably strong U.S. export shipments favored over Black Sea logistical uncertainties, and the potential for Chinese purchasing behavior to shift amid tariff negotiations. With producers currently undersold on new crop, our experts emphasize the need to actively scout fields to assess true yield potential, manage early harvest space by moving soybeans, and execute defensive pricing strategies for bushels that cannot be stored. They also note that current price levels present a strong opportunity to lock in profitable margins not just for this fall, but into the 2027 crop year.

Panelists
 - Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
 - Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
 - Brian Stark, The Andersons

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Aug 13 | Commodity Week

Panelists
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
- Ted Seifried, ZanerAgHedge.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

The August 13 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Jim McCormick, Ted Seifried, and Mike Zuzolo analyzing the latest USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The discussion centers on the USDA's adjustments to corn and soybean acreage, as well as the unexpectedly yield estimates despite adverse weather in the western Corn Belt. The panelists evaluate the significant geopolitical risks impacting the agricultural sector, particularly the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tightening global supply of diesel and fertilizer linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Looking ahead, the experts debate the potential impact of a super El Niño on upcoming South American production.

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Aug 06 | Commodity Week

The August 6 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from Ellen Dearden and Naomi Blohm ahead of the upcoming USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The panelists anticipate the USDA will maintain corn and soybean yield estimates near 183 and 53 bushels per acre, respectively, while emphasizing the need to monitor how European drought conditions and South American El Niño weather patterns will impact global grain stocks. The discussion details critical technical trading thresholds for December corn and November soybeans, advising producers to employ defensive marketing strategies, while waiting for potential seasonal harvest lows. Finally, the analysts provide brief outlooks on the livestock sectors—noting strong dairy demand, stable but softening live cattle fundamentals, and a persistently weak hog market—and warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a volatile risk to global agricultural trade.

Panelists
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview

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Jul 30 | Commodity Week

The July 30 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from panelists Matt Bennett, Chip Nellinger, and Jason Winter. The discussion centers on the immediate threat of severe heat and dry weather to crop yields in the Dakotas, alongside a sustained regional shift from wheat to corn and soybean acreage. Jason Winter highlights strong ongoing corn demand from the Pacific Northwest and intensified local soybean competition driven by newly constructed processing plants in North Dakota. The analysts concur that while short-term market movements will be dictated by impending weather forecasts, long-term prices will likely remain supported by shrinking global stocks and robust domestic demand. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East are identified as key drivers sustaining elevated energy and fertilizer costs. Consequently, the panel recommends that producers leverage on-farm storage to maintain long-term crop ownership while pragmatically pricing essential harvest sales.

Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Jason Winter, Columbia Grain International

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Jul 23 | Commodity Week

The July 23 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features agricultural market analysis from panelists Greg Johnson, Dave Chatterton, Curt Kimmel, and emeritus guest Wayne Nelson. The central theme of the program revolves around recent price rallies in the grain markets, with soybeans reaching the $12 range and corn nearing $5. The panelists strongly encourage farmers to focus on securing profitability through incremental, scale-up sales rather than trying to perfectly time the absolute top of the market. Key drivers of these market dynamics include highly variable Midwestern crop conditions—stemming from a wet planting season and localized dry spells—alongside significant global factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, a European drought, the South American El Niño, and the unpredictable nature of Chinese agricultural demand. The episode concludes on a sentimental note as Curt Kimmel announces his retirement at the end of the month, prompting fond farewells and reflections on his long career from his colleagues.

Panelists
- Dave Chatterton, SFMarketing.com
- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Wayne Nelson, WILLAg Emeritus

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Jul 16 | Commodity Week

The July 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (NAFB) Summer Showcase in Kansas City, Missouri, features agricultural analysts Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com and Arlan Suderman of StoneX. The program delves into deep macroeconomic and geopolitical parallels between the current market environment and the 1980s, highlighting how shifts in Chinese demand and escalating global conflicts, particularly new drone-driven disruptions in the Black Sea, are altering international grain and energy trade. The panel examines the operational complexities of domestic biofuel policies, such as the 45Z tax credit and RVO programs, noting that while soybean crushing remains robust, older biomass diesel plants are facing maintenance and cash flow limitations due to delayed regulatory guidelines. Looking ahead to the fall harvest, the experts advise grain producers to carefully monitor regional basis swings, look past short-term fund-driven market volatility, and proactively manage risk by securing early pricing protections.

Panelists 
 - Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting 
 - Arlan Suderman, StoneX

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