Todd Gleason: From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the December 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett.

He's agmarket.net. We'll hear from the practical farmers of Iowa. I spoke with Mark Peterson at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention that took place in Kansas City last month, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. Mike Tanura will have an update on weather in Brazil, how it's changed over the last month from concerning dry conditions to really wet conditions, and what that means going forward. And we'll do all of that right here on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

It is public radio with the farming world online on demand at WILL AG dot ORG.

announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett now joins us from agmarket.net to take a look at the marketplace. Hi Matt, thanks for being with us today.

Matt Bennett: Yeah, thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Well, let's start with what has been a market that's been trending lower since around the Thanksgiving time frame. Can you tell me a little bit about how you've seen this progress and what the issues might be and what your hopes are for the new year?

Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, I assume you're talking soybeans. So, you know, beans just haven't had any haven't had any luck whatsoever. I mean, yes. You get a trade deal, you know, and say, hey.

We're gonna we're gonna go ahead and buy or sell a bunch of beans to China. And it got the market a little excited. But then, you know, you get in here and there were some dry pockets in Brazil for a while, but I mean, overall, I'll tell you what, their weather looks fantastic. I mean, most of your crop estimates right now are anywhere from 170 to 180. So there's some awfully lofty estimates as far as how big this crop is gonna get.

And I'll tell you what, it makes it a really stiff headwind, you know, for this soybean market. And quite frankly, I feel like it's been part of the reason the corn market here lately has struggled somewhat, found some life today, and it did it on its own, and I think that's a really good sign.

Todd Gleason: You know, that was an interesting thing. I would do wanna come back to that. I wanna stay with soybeans for just a second. It may just be me, but I look forward into the 2026, and I'm really concerned that trade negotiations may still be underway and deteriorating. For instance, things didn't go well in the last couple of days as they were related to Taiwan and some arms sales, and that there could be another very small import of soybeans or another fall of early on zero import of soybeans from The United States.

Should I be concerned enough to take action in the marketplace in some place?

Matt Bennett: Well, I mean, part of the problem, Todd, is that a lot of growers are looking at no 26 beans at $10.70. That's 60¢ off the high. You know? I mean, there's no doubt that versus some of the sales we made this last year, it doesn't look bad. Okay?

But, it all depends on the individual grower and where they're at. So let's just say a grower says, I can't make $10.70 work. You're ten months ahead of harvest. I mean, clearly there's a lot of things that can happen here. So if I was going to step in and do something, it'd certainly be a strategy in which I had a fair amount of flexibility.

You know, that way, if something in the world turns in our favor, whether it's weather, you know, in The US, maybe that second crop, which they don't plant a lot of beans in the second crop in South America, but maybe it doesn't turn out as good as the first crop. I mean, clearly, the first one looks awfully good. But, yeah, I don't have a problem with it, Todd. It's just on an individual basis, first of all. And second of all, I'd wanna have some flex in that strategy.

Todd Gleason: You wanted to talk about corn just a bit. It had a good day on its own. Why was that the case, do you suppose?

Matt Bennett: Well, you know, ethanol numbers yesterday as far as how much corn we ground for ethanol was, the highest we've seen in a year. You know? And so, I mean, that was a really good thing to see. Of course, these export sales continue to come in extremely strong. You look at inspections and inspections are running 65% ahead of a year ago, whereas USDA is forecasting we're going to be up about 12% on exports versus a year ago.

So, you know, sales have been fantastic and most indications would lead you to believe, you know, that the export sale target of the USDA is very well within reach, even if some of these sales are front loaded. So, you know, that leads you to the next thing, of course, is what's the January report gonna look like? Now, I know some people are clamoring for a big yield drop. I'm not necessarily in that camp, but I do feel like it's gonna be surprising to me if the USDA doesn't drop some. Okay.

So, you know, you look at their balance sheet, they probably got a pretty good amount of wiggle room whenever you look at that feed and residual usage category but overall, what you've done, Todd is you put yourself in position where we have to have really good global production of corn And the reason is because we're drawing down world stocks. US stocks are ample to say the least, but US demand and world demands on an all time record. And so with you being in that situation, there's no doubt that you're going to have to have big production. I think if you don't, you know, it could be a pretty interesting corn market. I'm not saying we'll skyrocket, but I think we may have, you know, better opportunities than a year ago.

Todd Gleason: Okay. So you talked a little bit about export. Feed demand is an interesting one, particularly in, not only you, but everybody else has been concerned that the feed and residual number, and we'll know more about that, I guess, out of the grain stocks figure as well, may be too high. First quarter usage seem good to you or not?

Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, first quarter usage seems pretty good. I mean, the thing is we gotta remember it's feed and residual, as you well know, Todd. And so, you know, as the USDA have some fudge room in there for something that maybe we're not considering, you know, and that's certainly a distinct possibility. And so, you know, at this point, do I think that number is too high?

Yes. I feel like it's too high. But at the same time, you know, if you get into this yield, you know, by more than three or four bushel, I've gotta think that you could still maybe get that carry out number a little below 2,000,000,000. So you're absolutely right. First quarter usage is going to be very closely watched.

Another thing that we'll have to watch out for, last year, of course, we lost a lot of birds for a couple three months due to bird flu. There's been a couple of cases of bird flu that we've heard here and there, but nothing as widespread as a year ago. And we sure have to hope that's the case, that we don't follow along the same lines as last year. Because if we can keep all these birds eating, there's no doubt that, you know, we can probably have a little better feed usage number than what we did last year.

Todd Gleason: And finally, since the farm assets conference is completed, the Illinois Farm Economic Summit's wrapped up yesterday. My winter meeting season really just getting started, but those big things out of the way. I'm turning my attention to something that you and the ag market team have coming up. I don't recall what number this is for you, but the farming for profit not price conference is being held January 31 through February 2 in Nashville, Tennessee. Feels like that might be a nice Christmas gift for somebody to tell you about.

Oh, yeah. Absolutely.

Matt Bennett: Yeah. And and here's the thing, Todd. I've told some people if know if there's Trump bucks coming around maybe you're looking for a home for some of those too, I don't know. But regardless you know we're gonna have a pretty stacked lineup so the first day is going to be more focused on ag lenders but anyone's able to attend. And so Doctor.

David Cole will be there. Our buddy Joe Jansen will be there and he's going to talk about FBFM numbers with from PharmDoc. And then we're actually going to detail, you know, how do we lock in some worst case scenarios to try to avoid getting ourselves in a major trouble again, which would be really the fourth year in a row for a lot of growers if you look at some of the FarmDoc numbers. You know, and then Sunday, Monday, we've got a stack lineup as well. You know, we've got Eric Norland, the chief economist for the CME Group.

He's fantastic. We got Joe Vaclavik. You know, we got Shapol, Eric Snodgrass. I mean, you name it. Most of the people that are experts in their field along with Josh Linville on fertilizer, know, he's gonna try to help us figure out how to hedge some fertilizer, but got a little bit everything for people, and, we're just trying to solve problems, you know, and give solutions instead of just talk about what the problems are.

Todd Gleason: You can check out agmarket.net for all the details for the farming for not, for profit not price conference. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. We've been, of course, talking with Matt Bennett. He is at agmarket.net in Windsor, Illinois.

Over the past couple of weeks, we've been listening to interviews I conducted during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention that took place in the month of November in Kansas City. Today, we'll hear another one of those interviews. I spoke with Mark Peterson last year at the same convention. He's a member of the Practical Farmers of Iowa and from Stanton in the Southwest corner of that state. Last year, he had really good yields for his area.

I asked him if that was repeated this year.

Mark Peterson: You know, it went once again better than we expected. Corn yields in particular were very good. We're of a mindset that we don't necessarily follow what conventional wisdom is. My, nitrogen program is 100 pounds of liquid prior to planting, and and then I'm not real proud of it. But right now, 50 pounds broadcast, pre tassel.

So a 150 total pounds. And not all of it was this good, but the best corn that we had was two twenty eight across the scale. So very it's not record breaking yields, but based on what we feel is what we wanna use for inputs to be environmentally friendly, I'm very happy with how things went. Now we did have the corn diseases very strong in our part of the world. I did choose to use fungicide this year.

Don't every year, but this year I did. I think it was a good move. It appears in our area, our local area, that 30 to 60 bushel difference is is what it was. So in in any case, harvest went very well. Once again, dry.

We just haven't fought mud for several years. I'll say that, and now I've jinxed myself for next year, but it's been

Todd Gleason: very good. Just on the rust issue, that is something that comes up rarely into our part of the world. Probably something that most producers won't have to deal with next year. It doesn't overwinter, so it really needs to be blown in. Storms just happen to be right this year.

I do wanna talk about this. I'm not proud of it sort of thing as it's related to nitrogen, And then turn that into the nutrient loss reduction strategies that most of the states across the Midwest, including Illinois and Iowa, have been working on trying to better control the nutrients that are leaving properties, particularly farms. How well is Iowa doing in your opinion at this time?

Mark Peterson: Well, Iowa's doing better than it was. And I I think farmers more and more are realizing that you have two choices. You can do it on your own, or we can wait for more government, quote, health. Personally, I just assume avoid the help. And I I think I I I think there's a lot of farmers of a similar mindset.

Are we where we need to be? No. Because there's still water that is is not in the shape that we need to have it. We personally, between the lowered use of nitrogen and then I think our pretty much frequent annual use of cover crops, We are managing we we used to do water tests. We were consistently always below the 10 parts per million discharge at at our Tarquillo River.

And it got to the point there's no reason to keep doing this because we're there. And it it can be done, and it can you can do it Yeah. And be financially rewarding. You may not be able to go sit at the head table at the coffee shop and brag about having the highest yield in the county, but economically, it works out really well. And with these tough times, it's something to

Todd Gleason: think about. I do wanna probe those numbers, the 100 of the 100 pounds, and the 50 pounds of N. Are there any other sources of nitrogen that might be in in what you're doing on the farm as well?

Mark Peterson: No. No. We do not use any manure or anything like that. So that that is it. That and and then the the cover crops, you know, and and as you we have in either seven or eight years with use, particularly of a multi species cover crop in a longer time set, letting it grow for months rather than weeks without getting too deep into it.

We have increased our organic matter a full percentage point. And by doing that, that gives you an extra 20 pounds of nitrogen, for release and also an extra inch of water holding capacity, which is huge in our part of the world. I'm gonna keep going just for a bit. DAP, MAP. Yes.

Todd Gleason: 28%. Any of those asserted?

Mark Peterson: DAP and MAP, we do we do put that on in the wintertime. Yes. I was just referring only to nitrogen. But, yeah, we've got an agronomist we work with, and and we do, PNK according to his recommendations. That is done in the wintertime.

It is broadcast. There again, I'm not particularly proud of it, but we try and be as environmentally friendly with when we apply as we can. Yeah. So I was trying to

Todd Gleason: get to how much is really there. Yep. Probably right at the MRTN is my guess. Yeah. By the time you add everything up.

Is that correct?

Mark Peterson: Well, as far as for the nitrogen, I I suppose I suppose

Todd Gleason: Yeah. That's awesome. Anything else this year as you're thinking about, what the practical farmers of Iowa can do to talk to other producers, how they might be able to

Mark Peterson: get involved with them, whether they're in your state or other places? Well, the the way to get involved is, you know, contact practicalfarmers@practicalfarmers.org. We do have our annual conference coming up in early January the ninth and tenth. That's an awesome place to learn more about not just cover crops, but a variety of subjects. All that information on the conference is available online at practicalfarmers.org.

It the whole idea with practical farmers, you know, it's a broad 10 organization, and our members might be organic. They might be full on conventional, which is pretty much what I consider myself. But the synergy between everybody, just like when cover crops started to get popular in our part of the world and in the you know, around 2010 or so, if you talk to an organic farmer and say, gosh. These cover crop these new cover crops are really something they'd kinda look at you and smile because cover crops obviously have been a part of their program for decades. And what we could learn from them if we were willing to listen, was phenomenal.

Where is the conference to be held? It will be in the Convention Center in Downtown Des Moines, the January. Mark, thank you much. Thank you very much.

Todd Gleason: That was Mark Peterson from the Practical Farmers of Iowa recorded during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in Kansas City during the month of November. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media Online on demand at wilag.org. That's willag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Let's take a look at the global growing regions now with Mike Tanuri.

He's the CEO and president at t storm weather. That's, tstorm.net online out of Naperville, Illinois. Hey. Happy holidays to you, Mike. Thanks for being with us today.

Mike Tannura: Hey. Happy holidays to you too, Todd. Thanks a lot.

Todd Gleason: Okay. So let's begin in Brazil. Things have changed over the last month. Can you outline where we were a month ago? What we were talking about and what's different today?

Mike Tannura: Well, it was pretty incredible because at the November, we were looking at one of the driest starts, if not the driest start to a growing season in more than twenty five years of record for the northern half to two thirds of Brazil's soybeans. Ever since then, they've been getting hit by thunderstorm after thunderstorm after thunderstorm. And now as we sit today, the coverage of dryness is actually among the lowest of the last seven years in our records, and this just indicates that there's been a lot of rain. So most of these areas now have pretty ideal soil moisture. As we move forward, there's more thunderstorms ahead.

There's a cool front that's going to move through over the next couple of days in the central and north, and that will ignite more thunderstorms. And even though those areas start to dry out a little bit after that, you could almost argue it's a good thing because you don't want them to turn too wet, which can be a problem in Brazil. But they're not going to turn too wet. It'll dry out as upper level high pressure develops. As you look to the south, they're going to see some pretty nice thunderstorms early next week.

And even though they won't hit everybody, we think that by the time we move into the end of the year, everybody will eventually get hit by thunderstorms down there because another cool front is going to follow that first one. So in the end, we're basically looking at normal rainfall over the next two weeks in most of Brazil, and that's pretty ideal considering where we were a few weeks ago and where we are today.

Todd Gleason: And then in Argentina, what do crops look like there?

Mike Tannura: Well, they're a little bit dry, but the keyword is a little. This is not a major drought setup at this point in time because there have been thunderstorms from time to time. As we move forward, there's more thunderstorms ahead. We'll see a cool front move through Friday and Saturday and then exit as we move through Saturday and Sunday, and that will produce two periods of thunderstorms in the heart of Argentina. And because of that, their soil moisture situation should stay pretty stable.

As we get into next week, it doesn't look as wet, but there will be heavy rains in the northern regions as the cool front stalls out up there. And that only accounts for maybe 10 to 20% of their corn, soybeans, and sunflowers, but nonetheless, that region will turn quite a bit wetter. As we move into the very end of the year and even into next year, there are more cool fronts out there. So we think that in the end, the Argentina story is going to be pretty quiet with some thunderstorms around over the next two weeks.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to The United States, the growing regions, for winter wheat, livestock areas, and, of course, just the holiday week next week.

Mike Tannura: Well, absolutely. I mean, this might be a little bit surprising to listeners in the Illinois region, but it's been really, really mild as you move off to the West. Parts of Kansas and Oklahoma and Texas were in the sixties and seventies, even in the eighties at times within the last week. It's going to stay very mild there over the next three to four days, but then things are really going to get mild once we hit Monday. From Monday through Friday of next week, it looks like parts of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and even Nebraska are going to see high temperatures well into the sixties, seventies, and even eighties.

And because of that, it's just going to mark a continuation of what's been an unusually mild setup for the plains. So for winter wheat, that's basically going to keep everything pretty quiet for that crop. It's going to keep livestock out in the plains, pretty happy because they have no cold weather to deal with. It's going to be very dry right into next year. Now in the big picture, does this really mean anything?

Probably not because we know that springtime weather was what really drives hard red winter wheat yields, but it is an anomalous weather event. I mean, I haven't seen one like this in a while. So just gonna be way warmer than normal there next week, and it'll turn like that for much of the Corn Belt and the Mid South too. Even here in Illinois, we should see as high as in the fifties and sixties, maybe even some seventies south next week. So as you know, December, that's not normal.

Todd Gleason: One final note. Last week, you talked to us about some of the growing conditions in the Northern Part of Africa and The Middle East. Can you update us on where things are this week?

Mike Tannura: Yeah. For sure. If you look at what's been going on in North Africa, I mean, they've had many droughts over the last five years. And this year was starting out really dry not too long ago, but there's a couple of systems that are starting to move through from Southern Europe, and those are going to continue to bring rains to Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. So we think that the wheat dryness story is actually going to have a break finally with an easing of drought over the next couple of weeks.

In The Middle East, there's not much rain on the horizon over the next ten days. And while that might be a concern in other Decembers, you need to remember that they had a lot of rain just a couple of week ago or ten days ago. So moist conditions exist in Iraq and Iran. And it looks like some more rains are ahead ten to fifteen days from now. So basically, the wheat story across Africa and The Middle East is a quiet one this year, and that's a little bit unusual to what we've had in recent years.

Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. You have a great holiday week, and we will talk with you again not next week or the following week because those are Christmas Day and New Year's Day, but on, I believe, January 8. Thanks much.

Mike Tannura: Yeah. Sounds great. We'll talk next year.

Todd Gleason: But, of course, is Mike Tanuri. He is at t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online where he serves as the president and CEO, Mike a meteorologist, and an agricultural economist. You can catch him again in the closing market report if you want to online on demand at willag.orgwillag.org, or just search out the closing market report in your favorite podcast applications. They of course include Apple, Spotify, YouTube podcast, as well as the NPR app.

Thanks for listening on this Thursday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.