Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the February 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's at TGM.

That's totalgrainmarketing.com. And Greg, by the way, will join us next week for the all day outlook at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. If you've not purchased your tickets yet, you still can through Friday. Make sure you get them by then, and they're just $40. So you can join us at the Beef House.

That $40 includes your cinnamon roll and coffee in the morning, the Beef House lunch, the Farm Doc team, and the full bevy of the folks that you hear right here on Illinois public media like Greg Johnson and the rest of the brokers. Today, we'll also hear from True Lerner. He'll talk to us about the weather forecast. He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, and we'll do that on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the Farming World online on demand, again, at wallag.org.

March corn for the day settled at $4.30 and a half cents, up two and three quarters. May, $4.42, three and a half higher. And December corn at $4.67, up three and a quarter. March soybeans, eleven forty eight and a quarter, eight and three quarters higher. May, eleven sixty five, up nine and three quarters.

New crop November, 6 and a half cents higher. They finished at $11.27 and 3 quarters. Bean meal futures at $3.18 30, up $7.60. The bean oil at $60.26, 23¢ higher. Weed futures soft red at $5.65 and 3 quarters, a penny and 3 quarters of a cent lower.

For the March in the hard red, the March at $5.52 and a half, a penny and 3 quarters of a cent lower for the day. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $240.27 and a half cents, a dollar 17 and a half higher. Feeder cattle, three sixty four, two and a half, up a dollar 82 and a half. And lean hogs per 100 pounds, $96.20. That's up 40¢ for the day.

The crude oil in the WTI at $65.47 a barrel, 16¢ lower. Diesel fuel or heating oil, up a penny and four tenths at $2.52 and 8 tenths of a cent per gallon. And the gasoline today at $2.24 and 3 tenths. That's a penny and 3 tenths of a cent higher on the day. A live well, Dow Jones Industrial Average now up 246 points at forty nine thousand four eighty two, and the S and P 500 just about 54 points higher.

It's at six thousand nine hundred and fifty seven and three quarters of a point. Greg Johnson is here. He's with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com right here in Champaign County, Illinois. Hi, Greg.

Thanks for being with us. Tell me about the marketplace for the day, please.

Greg Johnson: Pretty quiet. The beans are rallying. We've had some wide ranges last several days, up 10¢ at one point, down 10¢ at another point. Kind of the same thing today. We've been down 5 at one point and up 10 at another.

Currently, we're higher. So a lot of uncertainty about, will China buy more beans? Will they not? How big is the crop in Brazil? Is the rain hurting the quality in the northern part of the country?

Is the dry weather hurting the crop in the southern part of the country? So we've got some unknowns, but the bottom line is we've gained back pretty much everything that we lost from the January 12 crop report. As far as soybeans are concerned, we're maybe $0.10 off the highs that we had last November. So the bean market is acting very well. I'm hopeful that I think that maybe when Trump goes to visit President Xi in China in April, that maybe they can get something worked out that would be considered positive for soybeans.

I'm not seeing the same thing translate into corn, at least not into the old crop corn. We lost probably 24¢ when that January 12 crop report came out and we gained about half of that back, on the old crop. Now the new crop corn, December corn, thanks to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, we gained back just about everything, all that we lost from the January 12 crop report. So we're sitting about as high as we've ever been on new crop corn, December futures. But the old crop corn, that's continuing to languish and that's what farmers are mainly interested in.

They've got a lot of old crop corn to sell and waiting for a rally, and we're just not seeing much of a rally. You know, once we see the acreage report from USDA on March 31, and if we're still dry, in April and May when the farmers get out into the field, we may see a little bit more of a rally then. But until then, it just seems like the market's content to stay in this 20 trading range in corn until we know a little bit more.

Todd Gleason: As the drought has expanded, particularly in our part of East Central Illinois, I suspect that farmers have said, Hey, I'm going to sit this one out for just a bit. Is that the case in your dry area?

Greg Johnson: It is. Exactly. We were just looking, the January rainfall total was 1.6 inches here in Champaign compared to a normal of 2.4. So that's the, thirteenth month in a row that the monthly total was below the ten year average. And it looks like it's going to be fourteen months in a row because with one week to go in February, we've only had a quarter of an inch and normally we get two and a quarter inches.

So unless we get two inches of rain this week, February's gonna finish out, the the month below normal, and so that'll make it fourteen months in a row.

Todd Gleason: Given that, I have a secondary question. Most of our analysts, including you, have been encouraging the idea that at least on new crop soybeans, maybe corn as well, though I'm not certain about that one, that producers really should be taking advantage of these higher prices. Sometimes that can change over a week. Has it or not?

Greg Johnson: You know, I think they're getting close. They they really wanna see that $11 cash price again. Those round numbers seem to bring out the the farmer selling. That would take $11.30 November futures, and we're at $11.25 today. So we're only a nickel away.

I really do anticipate new crop sales to start picking up on beans, just because we know, according to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, we're going to plant 4,000,000 more acres of beans. We know that Brazil's far enough along that they're going have a record crop, and they can plant more beans again next year. So unless you're willing to bet on a drought here in The US this summer, this probably is going to look like a pretty good price when it's all said and done.

Todd Gleason: And your thoughts on corn?

Greg Johnson: If, you know, if we have a normal crop, we'll still have plenty of corn. We'll get the carryout down from 2.1 down to 1.7 or 1.8. But will we have that normal yield? As dry as things are, we haven't had a bad crop for several years. So the odds would say maybe this might be the year that we have a below average crop.

And so I don't think the market sells off very much on corn until we have some answers to those questions. So I think farmers are going to be very patient on corn. We're 10¢ below the February crop insurance average where we were a year ago, whereas beans are probably close to a dollar higher than where they were a year ago. So the market is trying to send signals at this point that farmers, if you can go either way, maybe plant a few more beans and less corn. And so, I I think that should support the corn price here a little bit too until we have some answers to to the weather conditions.

Todd Gleason: There are a couple of things in Brazil that we should take up. Of course, parts of Brazil in the midst of harvest. It's been awfully quiet. That generally means it is a good crop. You can tell me whether that's the case or not in your opinion.

And then cargill has had some issue at one and then Cargill then Cargill's had issues at one of its export facilities related to indigenous people. They have been boycotting that facility, though. It's supposed to clear, I think, somewhere between the next twenty four to thirty six hours. Maybe you could update us on some information if you, have anything on it.

Greg Johnson: Yes. I I I think you're right. The the government has agreed to some concessions with the indigenous people that had taken over one of the Cargill facilities. That should be resolved here, like you said, within the next twenty four to thirty six hours. So we should get back to normal there.

So I think that's basically a non event. As far as Brazilian harvest, they're making good progress. A little too wet in the North is slowing things down, but probably already 50% planted on the safrinha corn crop. So they've got a fair amount of beans harvested, getting started on getting the corn planted. Normally they're about 64, 65% planted on the corn by now.

So we are behind schedule on the corn. But again, that might be more friendly to the corn price, you know, the lateness of the corn planting. But the beans, even if they're harvested a couple of weeks later, I don't think that affects the yield at all. It just affects the lateness of the double crop corn planting. So again, another reason to be maybe a little bit more friendly for new crop corn and maybe a little bit more of a reason to get some old crop beans and new crop beans sold at these levels.

Todd Gleason: Is there anything else you've been watching that we should be aware of going forward into the February, March?

Greg Johnson: I think government policy and the impact of Trump's visit to China are the two things that the funds are watching. The funds were long 230,000 contracts of beams back in November. And then they basically sold that whole thing off. They almost got to even in early January, and now they've amassed 170,000 contract position again. So they went from second longest, largest long position ever to zero.

And now they're back to probably about the third largest long position. So a lot of uncertainty, because if China does buy beans, that will tighten up the carry out. I understand that. And so there are traders that think beans can go to $12 if China really buys more beans. And there's other traders that think we can go to $10 if they don't buy any more beans because the Brazilian beans are 80¢ cheaper than US beans.

So, a lot of opinions out there on beans. That's what we gotta keep an eye on, and that's why we're right in the middle here at $11.

Todd Gleason: Hey, Greg. Thank you much. I appreciate it. And I'm also looking forward to having you at the Beef House with us for the All Day Ag Outlook next week on Tuesday.

Greg Johnson: Yes. Yes. Hopefully, we'll have a little bit more to talk about on Tuesday.

Todd Gleason: I bet we will. Hey. Thanks much again. That, of course, is Greg Johnson. He's from TGM.

That's totalgrainmarketing.com, and we'll set on the soybean panel for next Tuesday's all day outlook at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. The doors there open at 07:30 in the Central time zone, Eastern time zone at 08:30, an hour later for the start time. So the start time in the Eastern time zone is 09:30AM. But you wanna come early, relatively speaking, so you can pick up that cinnamon roll and coffee from the beef house in the morning and get yourself settled in prior to the time that the folks take the stage. We'll start out with Eric Snodgrass next week from Nutrient Ag Solutions to take a quick look at the weather forecast.

We'll go through the grain market fundamentals and some crop budgeting with Joe Jansen and Nick Paulson, followed by Joanna Kalusim, who will tell us about the South American crop prospects and what kind of competition that nation is putting on the world stage these days. And then we'll follow that up, of course, with Matt Bennett, Brian Stark, and Mike Suzlow, along with Kurt Kimmel and our corn panel. Aaron Hager will be there, weed scientist from the Ovi, to talk about weeds and what you can expect this year and how things are changing as it's related to herbicides and their value in the field. Of course, we'll turn our attention at the end of the day to the value of farmland. Speaking of value, Bruce Sherick will be there.

He's part of the PharmDoc team and the director of the TIA Center for Farmland Research here on campus. And Gary Schnitke will help us wrap out the day. He's going to tell you about crop insurance decisions that need to be made by the March and how to deal with ECO, SEO, and the RP products. It will be a fantastic day, but you'll need to be there. You can sign up now.

The cost is, well, just $40 through Friday. Don't wait. Get yourself signed up today at willag.org. That's willag.org. In today's agricultural news, just one item, this from the Farm Doc team.

Significantly higher subsidy rates, which take effect in 2026, mean the producers, writes the PharmDoc team, should seriously consider using the SCO and ECO products. This article addresses three common questions about the products. First, the expected county yields as they're used to set guarantees for SCO and ECO and how they may be low relative to actual yield potential in many areas of the Midwest. The team writes the high subsidy rates still suggest producers should expect to receive more in payments over time than they pay in premiums. Secondly, the PharmDoc team recommends prioritizing ECO 95% and then considering SCO if additional coverage is desired.

And finally, while APH yields on individual farms can differ from the expected yields used for SCO and ECO, this does not impact, they say, the likelihood of an individual farm receiving payments. All farms with SCO or ECO coverage in a particular county will receive payments if the coverage is triggered. The size of those payments and the premiums that are paid simply scale proportionally, writes the PharmDoc team to the farm's APH relative to the county's expected yield. You can learn more in two ways. First, by visiting the PharmDoc daily website and reading the article from yesterday.

And secondly, while you're at the site or at willag.org, either one, you can sign up for the All Day Ag Outlook. Gary Schnicki will be there on Tuesday of next week. I hope you will too. The closing marker report is a production of Illinois Public Medium. It's public radio for the farming world.

Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Let's take a look at the global growing regions now. We're joined by Drew Lerner. He is at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hello again on a Wednesday, Drew.

Thank you for being with us.

Drew Lerner: Yeah. I hope you're doing well.

Todd Gleason: I am doing very well today, and I think, and you can tell me about this, but because things have been so quiet in Brazil, it's kind of like sitting in Illinois when Iowa is quiet. That means things are really good. What are you hearing about the crop and the harvest there?

Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, we're about six and a half percentage points behind in Safrinha corn planting at least as of the twenty first according to CONAB. And if that is indeed the case, that's still not too bad. Some of the delay has resulted from rain that occurred earlier this month, but we're starting to dry it out a little bit. And I think that the outlook is going to be quite favorable for speeding along soybean maturation and harvest progress over these next ten days and maybe two weeks.

That will also open the door for safrinha corn to be planted more aggressively as well. So we may be a little behind now, but we could see some big catch up taking place as we go forward through the next ten days because the rain is going to become erratic and light in many areas, not all, but many. And if that's the case, then we'll be doing fine for getting the crop in the ground and getting it established. But it's gonna be important that we get rain to show up in the March and get that ground saturated again before the end of the monsoon, or we could end up having a little bit of stress for some of that safrinha corn. So a lot of stuff to keep an eye on there.

Todd Gleason: Is that related speed of the transition from La Nina to El Nino at all?

Drew Lerner: Well, I think it was to a certain degree. I guess it still is. The problem is is that the the El Nino transition is being steadily pushed back as each new forecast model run comes. Think if you remember back in January, some of the NOAA model runs were suggesting by April or May, we would have El Nino. The forecast model runs this week have been suggesting that maybe in July.

So that's a pretty big delay in the arrival of that. If that's the case, we will probably continue to have at least a little bit of a lighter bias precipitation across some of that, Eastern Argentina and Southern Brazil region.

Todd Gleason: Okay. Now turn your attention to Argentina given that you brought that up. What are conditions like there today?

Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, Argentina has had kind of an interesting summer season. They've they've certainly got off to a fairly good start. They got a little dry. They got too dry, and then they got some break.

And probably the best rains of the season occurred just about a week and a half or so ago and really helped to ease the dryness in many areas. But today, we still have quite a bit of dryness in Buenos Aires, mostly central and eastern parts of that province and also up in the Far Northeast. Now Buenos Aires most important summer corn and soybean areas are in the Central through the Northwest rather than the East. And so I'm sure there's some crop has been impacted and we'll see some lower yields coming from that area. You know, when you step back and look at the big picture about South America, Brazil is going to have such a big crop that whatever injury we've done in reducing the yields in Argentina is just not going to carry much water, I'm afraid.

We do expect another seven days of dry biased weather in Eastern Argentina and for that matter Rio Grande do Sul, Uruguay and Paraguay as well. But after that, looks like a fairly good opportunity for rain coming up. So I can't get too excited about any bigger potential losses in Argentina over what's already occurred, which isn't that great.

Todd Gleason: Speaking of dry, biased weather, we should probably visit The United States where in East Central Illinois, where I am. We are the bull's eye of a really pretty deep drought that has been happening since July. Any chance that'll get fixed here or other places across the Corn Belt that have suffered through some dry conditions over the winter months?

Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, just today and yesterday, big shifts have taken place in the forecast model runs, changing the pattern to a quite wet one. And in fact, it is a little bit I'm not a big believer at the moment, but there are supposed to be three waves of rain that move from the Southeastern US Plains. That would be East Texas and Southeastern Oklahoma, as well as the Western and Northern parts of the Delta right through Illinois into Indiana and Michigan. All of that would occur in the second week, starting about a week from now and going on out towards the March.

I, it's very impressive. A deep trough of low pressure develops over the planes and we get cool air in the Western United States, very warm conditions in develop in the Eastern part of the country. And we get a quasi stationary frontal system in between. And that's how we get the three waves of rain. You know, it's entertaining to look at.

I'm just not completely convinced. I do think that we will see rain during that time period and you will get some relief. But as far as the big soakings that the models have out there today, I think that might be just a little exaggerated for some parts of the region. But nonetheless, moisture is moisture, and we definitely need it. And this would be at least a step in the right direction.

Todd Gleason: Are the rainfalls in the hard red winter wheat growing areas worthwhile and are there any issues there?

Drew Lerner: You know, the biggest thing for hard red winter wheat country is the potential that we did some notable damage, in Nebraska, in parts of Colorado and South Dakota and on up into Montana. And the same is out there for parts of the region from Northern Missouri into Indiana and Ohio because of the multiple day period where we were snow free in late January and early February and saw temperatures hovering near zero in the afternoon and, and falling into the negative teens and negative single digits at night. So we kind of think that there's some damage out there in wheat country, maybe not complete winter kill, but the crop may be limping along. And so it's going to be very important that we get some timely rain and to see the temperatures stay cool during the spring so that new tillers can be set. If that occurs, then I think the crop will probably come out of this not too bad.

But the forecast right now for a hard red winter weeder is this for the temperatures to be warm biased through a big part of the spring and precipitation will continue to be lacking in some of the Western parts of the region. Now that big storm system we just talked about for the Midwest and the Delta does try to bring some moisture into the Southeastern corner of hard red winter wheat areas. I think all that's going to do is stimulate aggressive green up and crop development in Oklahoma and parts of Northern Texas. But for the rest of the wheat region, I'm afraid it's going to continue to be dry and straddle for some of that region. And I am a little bit concerned that we won't get enough rain in those areas that some of these yields on the wheat crop may be down because of that damage that we talked about.

Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: Alright. Have a good one.

Todd Gleason: You too. That's Drew Lerner. He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois public media. It is public radio for the farming world.

Don't forget to sign up for the all day I got. Look. It's Tuesday next week at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. Complete details and the agenda are online. The cost is just $40 through Friday.

Make sure you get yourself signed up today. Don't wait. Do it right now at willag.org. The All Day Ag Outlook, our thirty sixth annual event. It is sponsored by University of Illinois Extension, Illinois Public Media, and the PharmDoc team.

I'm Todd Gleeson.