Todd Gleason: From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the March 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's at TGM.

That's total grain marketing, the elevator system stretching across the Southern Part of Illinois and into East Central and West Central Illinois and Indiana. And then we'll turn our attention to the agricultural news for the day. And as we close out our time, we'll discuss the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.

We'll return to a topic Drew brought up last week, which is a cyclic cold air mass that has been showing up about every forty five days or so. And he, as you'll hear, is concerned that that might happen again at the April or beginning of the month of May, and we'll do all of that on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.

announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: As we start our program today, there is news from the Federal Reserve meeting. It has held interest rates unchanged. In Chicago today, May futures for corn finished at $4.63 and a quarter. That was 9 and a quarter cents higher. July at $4.74 and a half up 9, and December corn 8¢.

New crop at $4.89 and 3 quarters of a cent a bushel. May beans up four and three quarters at $11.61 and 3 quarters. And new crop November 1141 a half finished 10 and a quarter higher. July soft red winter wheat up fourteen and three quarters of a cent at $6.15 and a half cents. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace.

Hi, Greg. Thanks much for being with us. Monday was an interesting day for soybeans. It is the first time soybeans have made a, a limit move in Chicago for a very long time. What do you think of that trade?

Greg Johnson: Well, the the the beans had been getting maybe a little bit ahead of themselves. The funds, as we found out, in the commitment of traders report, are probably now the second longest, that they've ever been. And I think we just basically ran out of buyers. The funds are still long, but they did sell off a little bit and there just wasn't much buying up there at those contract highs. And so we had gone up a 1.5 and losing $0.70 is tough.

But I I just like to remind people to not get too caught up in the day to day, oh, we're up today or we're down today. I mean, just take a look at those prices. In December corn is approaching $5 on the board, and the crop insurance average was $4.72. And November beans on the board are $11.42, and, that crop insurance average was $11.00 9. So we're above the crop insurance level.

So you can, sell corn and beans at these prices and, have the insurance as a as a pretty good backstop. So, you know, kinda take a step back, I think, and and look at those prices rather than just whether we're up or down for the day.

Todd Gleason: Oh, but, Greg, I listened to all of that, and the only thing I heard you say was that Monday was a correction. No. Not not true, I don't think.

Greg Johnson: On corn, maybe.

Todd Gleason: But there

Greg Johnson: On corn, maybe. I mean, if if we're gonna plant less corn and plant more beans, maybe corn still has some room to work higher. The beans, though, I mean, if we're gonna plant a lot of extra beans, then, you know, this might be a selling opportunity for soybeans.

Todd Gleason: I think I saw the numbers come out from Stonex. They weren't terribly different than what USDA's acreage figures look like in total, roughly speaking, and or by corn, soybeans, and wheat. Anything else that we've been watching come out as that acreage report gets closer to us, some prospective plantings on March 31?

Greg Johnson: Yeah. We had another private, analyst come out with their numbers. Allendale came out, with their corn, acres and bean acres based on their farmer survey, and they have 93,700,000 acres of corn, a little bit lower than some of the other estimates. And then they're a little bit higher on soybeans, obviously, 85,600,000 acres. So again, that kind of reinforces my opinion that if we do plant all these beans, we certainly are putting a lot of eggs in one basket, hoping that China bails us out with purchases.

And I'm not sure how much you know, how how heavily we wanna rely on China. So, you know, that acreage number, is probably a little friendly corn, a little negative beans. The other thing that they released was they survey their farmers on what percentage sold they are for old crop and new crop corn and beans. And that kind of ties in with where we think farmers are. They said that farmers are 69% sold on old crop corn, but only 9% sold on new crop corn.

And on the beans, they think they're 83% sold on old crop beans, but only 11% on new crop beans. And I guess I was hoping or thinking and encouraging farmers to be a little bit more heavily sold on new crop beans than just 11% at these prices.

Todd Gleason: Yeah. So producers have not, either by Allendale's account or by your own account there, at the elevator for TGM, maybe across that whole system. We're saying producers just haven't stepped up on the new crop. I doubt that they had that much old crop to sell, but they were pretty happy, I would think, when they finally did. They're just willing to wait, and that's a crop they sell across the scale if they need cash.

Is that how that tends to work out in their minds, do you suppose?

Greg Johnson: Well, it depends on what the the storage charges will be in the fall. If the storage charges are prohibitive like they were last fall, yeah, we will see a little bit more, selling across the scale. But, you have to remember that the price for new crop corn across the scale at most elevators last fall was below $4. And just here recently in the last week or two because of the war, have we have been able to get old crop corn prices up above $4.50. So you you would have had to hold on to it for seven months.

And if you're paying start DP charges or storage charges, you're not netting $4.50, you're probably netting $4.10 or $4.20. So, you know, most elevators are paying $4.60 right now for new crop corn. So why not start at $4.60 when, you know, this year you had to hold on to it for seven months just to to to get $4.50? So, you know, same same thing on the beans. You know, if you can get some beans sold at $11 plus, and not have to pay any storage charges, that's not a bad place to start in my opinion.

Todd Gleason: But I can hear it again in the back of my mind saying, you know, not everybody got their nitrogen on like I did, although I suspect that's not really the case. And and there will be fewer corn acres because of that and the Iran war at this point. I I don't know that producers can count on that. What do you think?

Greg Johnson: Yeah. Well and that's why I'm not as excited about selling a bigger percentage of new crop corn. I mean, 20%, you know, I'm not saying sell a 100%, you know, 20%. But but but soybeans, yeah, we we probably need to up the percentage on soybeans. So I I guess the takeaway is this might be a selling opportunity for soybeans.

And corn. I understand corn can go higher. It can also go lower too. So why not sell 20%, for example, at these prices and hope that it does go higher because you still have 80% to sell? And like I say, it's almost impossible to pick highs and lows.

But if you can make money, if this is a profitable level and you've got the crop insurance as a backstop, I think, at some point, we have to transition from trying to outguess the price direction to to, saying, hey. Can I lock in a profit at that at a certain level?

Todd Gleason: Couple of other things that are in the news that we should probably talk about. One is the gathering the Trump administration is having on the twenty seventh in Washington DC on the lawn, I suppose, and or at least that's what I hear as opposed to inside. I guess it will depend on how the weather is. It's not clear, though, that they will have an RVO update out at that point, and there's a lot of chatter about that. What are you hearing?

Greg Johnson: Yeah. The the traders are hopeful that there will be an RVO announcement, but put you know, hitching your wagon to a government decision, tends to lead to disappointment. I would not be surprised if nothing is announced or if it's just very general vague terms and, you know, it kinda kicked down the road again. It just seems like that's the the the modus operandi. They don't wanna alienate big oil.

They don't wanna alienate big ag, and so they just kinda kick the can down the road. And, you know, that's the same way with e fifteens, these RVOs. I I I hope they announce something, but I wouldn't place too much hope on that at this point.

Todd Gleason: Yeah. I think there were two deadlines for the congressional committee that was looking into parts of this, the seventeenth yesterday and the twenty fifth next week. And this party, is set as a celebration of agriculture in the two hundred and fiftieth year of The United States is on the twenty seventh. I suppose it's maybe worthwhile just to think of it as that, and hope that there are other things that come along if you're on that side of agriculture. Hey.

Thanks much. And I will look forward to talking with you tomorrow afternoon for commodity week too.

Greg Johnson: Great. Looking forward to it, Todd. Thank you.

Todd Gleason: You're welcome. That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com, part of the elevator system that stretches across the Southern part of Illinois and into Indiana. You're listening, of course, to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Wednesday afternoon.

Do visit our website, .org, willag.org. The theme music for our program is written, performed in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. In today's agricultural news, ongoing conflicts in The Middle East are driving up energy and fertilizer prices. That's raising new concerns for twenty twenty six corn and soybean returns According to a recent analysis by the FarmDoc team at the University of Illinois, corn and soybean markets initially rallied, but then they set back. That happened, as you know, earlier in the week.

Report notes the immediate sting, rising fertilizer costs, may be minimal for many producers this season. A significant portion of those inputs have already, of course, been purchased. However, the ag economist cautioned the long term outlook poses a broader threat. Should the overseas conflict persist, elevated energy prices are expected to ripple through the global supply chain, ultimately driving up cost across all agricultural inputs, goods, and services. You may read more in the Farm Doc Daily article posted to willag.org.

Well, high price of beef has farmers considering how to add a herd back into their operations. One of the best options, as research at the University of Illinois is showing, says extension beef specialist Travis Mateer, is to graze cattle on cover crops. It changes the entire economic equation.

Travis Meteer: Having livestock is one of the fastest ways to make cover crops pay because it's forage, it's feed for cattle, and other ruminants too. It's a no brainer. We have to have, in a farming operation, we have to have some sustainability to profitability. And I I just I just don't think we can rely on government payments to make our farms sustainable. Livestock right now looks like a really good option.

Todd Gleason: Antir notes that while varieties and technologies have improved, the concept of grazing cover crops brings an historic rotation back to modern row crop operations. Well, let's stay with the beef cattle industry. Thousands of workers for the world's largest meat packing company began a two week strike earlier this week. It is the first walkout at The US beef slaughterhouse in four decades following accusations from union officials that companies retaliated against workers and committed other unfair labor practices in the JBS Greeley, Colorado owned plant. They said the company offered wage increases of less than 2% annually, which is also below Colorado's inflation rate.

Union officials say 99% of the plant's 3,800 unionized workers voted to strike. More than 2,600 have shown up on the picket line. From the picket line, we'll move to Capitol Hill where year round e 15 legislation is still in search of a vehicle to speed it to the legislative finish line. One senator apparently has an idea if the skinny farm bill does not work. Iowa's Chuck Grassley says if it can't be the farm bill where the house agriculture ruled it non germane, then maybe the answer, he thinks, is a supplemental defense bill for the Iran War.

Charles Grassley: This war is shutting down the Strait Of Hormuz, and, that's really affecting oil supply. So if we're gonna finance the war and one of the results of the war is high gas prices and e 15 is going to bring down gas prices. It seems to me to be an appropriate mix.

Todd Gleason: Separately, Grassley says he is encouraged by news reports that president Donald Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to a White House ag event next week as the twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven RVO volumes are supposed to be finalized.

Charles Grassley: It was sure good news to have the White House say that, in a few days, he's going to have a, I don't know what you call it a rose garden, but an outside ceremony honoring farmers and ranchers. And, hopefully, that's good news for biofuels.

Todd Gleason: For his part, senator Grassley was clearly unsure if the president would announce anything on year round e 15 within the confines of the next week and the half. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. Let's take a look at the global growing regions now and forecast for weather across them. Drew Lerner is here. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.

Drew, I want to look back first at this winter storm and the cold that came through. Eyes mostly were pointed northward on so much snow that came into the Great Lakes area, but the cold temperatures dipped pretty deep. Can you tell me about any concerns you might have across, I don't know, winter wheat growing regions of the nation?

Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, we did see freezing temperatures down into Central Texas, down into Northern And Central Louisiana, the Interior Southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, Central Georgia. In fact, just I think it was this morning that we got down to below freezing along the Northwest Florida Coast. So, you know, it is March 18 in case you weren't sure. And spring starts in a couple of days here.

But, you know, what's most important about all this is the fact that we were warm prior to this cold surge. And we may have certainly stressed some of the winter crops out there. I don't think from what little information I've gathered, there's not a lot of super advanced weed out there. Some areas in the Southeast in the boot and they got down close to the damage threshold, but I don't think they went below it. And I think that for the most part, we're probably okay.

I'm guessing that maybe a handful of places in Arkansas, maybe had a little damage done. And then hard red winter wheat, a little different story. The temperatures dropped down in parts of Southwestern Nebraska and Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to near and slightly below zero. And there was no snow on the ground. Of course, we were real warm before this event occurred.

So there's some concern that we might have done some more damage to the crop out there. Certainly has not been a favorable winter for hard red winter wheat and certainly not in the Northern Plains. I doubt seriously, killed a lot of crop, but I think there's a lot of injured crop out there between the cold surges and the heat and the wind. I just don't think the crops in the best shape. So in order to get the tillers to be reset and, you know, get that production back to normal, we need some cool and wet weather to occur.

And I don't see any of that. It's going to be hotter than heck, over these next few days out across hard red winter wheat areas. Temperatures being the eighties and nineties. We're probably gonna see some temperatures over 100 in West Texas and Southwestern Oklahoma maybe. There's no rain in the forecast, not only over these next four days when the heat waves around there, but even through the second week of the outlook, very little precipitation.

So that's not the right environment if we're gonna recover this winter crop. So I'm thinking maybe a little smaller crop may be on order there.

Todd Gleason: Oh, interesting. We'll have to pay attention to that. I wanna go back to something that you mentioned last week when we were talking. It was the repeating persistence of the cold weather just periodically, the vortex opening up and dropping cold air, out of the top of the globe, into the center part of The United States. Happened in November.

It's happened again a couple of times since then. Are you concerned still that that might cause a problem later this spring?

Drew Lerner: You know, I am still very impressed with this cyclicalness of these extreme cold air masses we've had since November. And certainly what we experienced this past weekend and earlier this week, it was nothing short of amazing and it does reaffirm this pattern is still in place. So the next appearance of this would probably be in the April or the May. Now by then, of course, the jet stream is going to be farther to the north. And so the potential of seeing freezes all the way down to the Gulf Coast is pretty low, but we could get some freezes into the heart of the Midwest.

With the warmer weather that's coming up here over the next couple of weeks, I'm sure there's a lot of guys are gonna be out into the fields. And I just want to wave a little caution flag to be careful not to get it too quick into the fields because I do think that we'll see another round of notable cold and we don't want to lose the crop any sooner than we have to if we're going to have to lose it. So I just urge a little caution. If we see the cycle again at that point, then we're going to have to worry a little bit about Canada's crops. And then we get out closer to the June.

So it's just something to kinda keep an eye on. In the meantime, it is going to warm up. We're gonna see some more days of warm weather. And, yeah, I'm sure the environment's gonna be pretty favorable for getting out and working some fields early, but just keep it in the back of your mind that we don't wanna be too early with anything this year.

Todd Gleason: Anything you're watching in South America as it's related to harvest in Argentina and or Brazil, and then maybe a quick look at second crop corn planting in Mato Grosso.

Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, the weather in South America and for that matter, North America too to a large degree has become very significantly La Nina biased in these last three weeks. Had a big insurgence or a big rise I guess of the Southern Oscillation Index suggesting that La Nina had actually become a little bit more dominating in the world. Indeed that is the one of the reasons why we've seen dryness in The US playing so persistently in the Southwestern United States. In South America, we've seen a classic La Nina signature these past few weeks where Eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Southern Paraguay and Southern Brazil have had very little precipitation while Western parts of Argentina and the rest of Brazil has had some much more routine occurrence of rain with some of it near to above normal.

Well, La Nina is still expected to weaken quite a bit. And as it does, we're gonna see the rains come into some of these areas, but we're still probably at least a couple of weeks away from that happening. Now in Argentina, there is a pretty good chance we're going to see some impressive rains in the central and western part of the country coming up over this next week. And there will be enough rain to probably induce some local flooding, certainly some disruption to early season harvesting there. Southern Brazil though will continue to be in a dry weather mode.

They got a little bit of rain last night, but that's it for the next ten days to two weeks. It'll be drying out again in that area. Farther to the north from Mato Grosso over to Minas Dres, those areas are seeing a regular pattern of shower and thunderstorm activity. And it's really a pretty good environment for most of the crops there. The safrinha corn is I think in very good shape for the most part.

There is a need for more moisture in the southern part of the production region. Whereas the North has been seeing rain more routinely. We're about two to three weeks away from the end of the monsoon so keeping the rain going for a little while longer would be really helpful in ensuring that that crop has the best possible chance to do well during reproduction.

Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a good day.

Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the Farming World online on demand at willag.org. That's willag.org. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.