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Closing Market Report

Today's wrap-up on the agricultural markets: news, analysis, and weather

Apr 01 | Closing Market Report

- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Ag Markets with Greg Johnson

The recent USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks reports were largely neutral for corn and slightly friendly for soybeans. Currently, the market is being driven by geopolitical headlines, with money flowing out of commodities and into equities due to expectations that Middle East tensions may ease. Significant damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure for crude oil and natural gas, a key fertilizer input, will take years to repair. This damage is expected to keep transportation and input costs elevated, contributing to inflation and likely delaying any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Because planted acreage is high enough to meet demand under normal yield conditions, future market movement will heavily depend on actual yields and the actions of investment funds, which are currently holding near-record long positions. Farmers are advised to consider pricing new crop soybeans in the mid-$11 range.


How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create | farmdoc

The EPA recently announced new Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) that will increase biomass-based diesel mandates by roughly 60% for 2026 and 2027. Meeting these new mandates will require between 50 and 60 billion pounds of feedstock, consuming approximately half of the world's total supply of fats and oils. This massive increase in domestic demand for soybean oil is expected to push US crush capacity to its absolute limit. Consequently, the US soybean market is pivoting away from exports, which are facing stiff competition from cheaper Brazilian supplies, toward domestic consumption. This transition is highly bullish for domestic pricing, supporting the farmdoc team's projection of an $11 season average cash price.


Ag Weather with Drew Lerner

In Brazil, the safrinha, or second crop corn, in the north is well-established but will rely heavily on existing soil moisture as the monsoonal rains wind down. Southern safrinha areas are currently dry but still have opportunities to catch rain from passing frontal systems. Meanwhile, in Argentina, a shift in weather patterns has brought heavy rain to previously dry areas. Parts of the country, particularly central Buenos Aires, are now too wet, stalling the sunseed harvest and creating potential quality issues. In the United States, the lower Midwest and northern Delta are expecting multiple waves of significant rain and cooler temperatures, which will likely delay early spring fieldwork. Conversely, dryland crop areas from Texas to Nebraska will see a break from extreme heat but are forecast to remain critically dry for at least another week to 10 days.

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Mar 31 | Closing Market Report

- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- WILLAg News Update
- March USDA Hogs & Pigs Report Analysis
- Don Day, DayWeather.com

Program Overview

  • Program Name: Closing Market Report
  • Date of Broadcast: March 31, 2026
  • Host: Todd Gleason from the University of Illinois Extension
  • Network: Illinois Public Media (available online at willag.org)
  • Focus: The show provides comprehensive coverage of agricultural markets, industry news, livestock updates, and weather forecasts tailored for the farming community.

Program Elements

  • Ag Markets Analysis: The core of the episode focuses on the release of the USDA's Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Host Todd Gleason details the survey results, noting a 3% decrease in intended corn acres and a 4% increase in intended soybean acres compared to the previous year. Guest Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com provides expert analysis, explaining that the reports fell mostly within expectations and failed to trigger any dramatic market shifts, leaving corn and soybean prices relatively range-bound.
  • WILLAg News Update: This segment covers several key agricultural news items:
    • The EPA's release of the final renewable fuel standard volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which was well-received by major agricultural groups for creating demand for biofuels.
    • The EPA's action to remove problematic sensor requirements for diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) systems, aimed at preventing equipment downtime during spring planting.
    • A report by Mike Davis featuring Blaine Nelson from Farmer Mac, discussing how AI and digital technology are making farm loan underwriting faster, more transparent, and less costly.
  • USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report Analysis: The program reviews the latest livestock data, highlighting a slight year-over-year increase in total hog inventory despite a drop in the breeding herd. University of Missouri agricultural economist Jason Franken provides commentary, noting that producers are relying on increased efficiency (record pigs per litter) to manage supply as they financially recover from 2023 losses.
  • Honoring WWII Flying ACE "Bud" Anderson: A unique segment featuring audio from General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, honoring Colonel Clarence Emil "Bud" Anderson, a highly decorated World War II fighter pilot who recently passed away at age 102. Gleason uses the moment to encourage listeners to support and thank veterans.
  • Ag Weather Forecast: The show concludes with a weather outlook from Don Day of Day Weather. Day forecasts a wet start to April with significant rainfall expected across much of the Corn Belt, heavy spring snows in the northern states, and beneficial moisture for the western U.S., though some areas in the central plains will remain dry.
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Mar 30 | Closing Market Report

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Drought & Workers Strike May Reconfigure Beef Processing
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai Weather

The March 30, 2026, Closing Market Report details agricultural commodity performance, processing challenges, and global weather conditions.

Market Performance

  • Corn and hard red winter wheat futures closed lower, while soybean futures experienced mixed results.
  • Live cattle, feeder cattle, and crude oil prices finished higher, contrasting with downward movements in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.

Commodity Outlook

  • Market participants are positioning for the March 31 USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks reports, which will establish benchmarks for acreage and demand estimates.
  • Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, specifically involving Iran, are anticipated to sustain elevated energy prices and inject broader economic volatility.
  • Livestock markets currently remain supported by the approaching summer grilling season.

Beef Processing and Supply Chain

  • A worker strike at the JBS processing plant in Greeley, Colorado, is forcing the reallocation of fed cattle to alternative facilities, primarily in Texas and Nebraska.
  • The strike is exerting short-term pressure on fed cattle markets, with the potential to negatively impact feeder cattle prices if the disruption is prolonged.
  • The broader beef industry continues to contend with packing overcapacity relative to shrinking cattle inventory, alongside long-term drought concerns in the western United States.

Global Agricultural Weather

  • U.S. Plains: The hard red winter wheat crop is facing critical stress from extreme soil moisture deficits and record-high temperatures.
  • U.S. Midwest: Conditions are highly favorable for summer crop planting, driven by an active weather pattern that is actively replenishing soil moisture without introducing unseasonable cold.
  • Black Sea Region: Winter crop development in Eastern Europe and Russia is progressing well with improved topsoil moisture, though subsoil moisture deficits from previous dry spells remain an area to monitor.
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