Commodity Week by WillAg.org and Illinois Extension, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Commodity Week

A weekly wrap-up of the agricultural markets, news, analysis, and weather.

Aug 20 | Commodity Week

In this August 20th edition of Commodity Week, our panel—Dave Chatterton, Brian Stark, and Greg Johnson—evaluates the market's transition from a weather-induced, supply-driven rally to one heavily dependent on post-harvest demand. With recent excessive rainfall in Central Illinois and Indiana compounding earlier moisture stress, the panel anticipates corn and soybean yields will fall short of the USDA's optimistic August estimates, keeping local crop sizes challenged but far from a total disaster. As the trade awaits final figures from the Pro Farmer crop tour, attention is shifting toward demand wildcards, notably strong U.S. export shipments favored over Black Sea logistical uncertainties, and the potential for Chinese purchasing behavior to shift amid tariff negotiations. With producers currently undersold on new crop, our experts emphasize the need to actively scout fields to assess true yield potential, manage early harvest space by moving soybeans, and execute defensive pricing strategies for bushels that cannot be stored. They also note that current price levels present a strong opportunity to lock in profitable margins not just for this fall, but into the 2027 crop year.

Panelists
 - Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
 - Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
 - Brian Stark, The Andersons

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Aug 13 | Commodity Week

Panelists
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
- Ted Seifried, ZanerAgHedge.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

The August 13 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Jim McCormick, Ted Seifried, and Mike Zuzolo analyzing the latest USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The discussion centers on the USDA's adjustments to corn and soybean acreage, as well as the unexpectedly yield estimates despite adverse weather in the western Corn Belt. The panelists evaluate the significant geopolitical risks impacting the agricultural sector, particularly the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tightening global supply of diesel and fertilizer linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Looking ahead, the experts debate the potential impact of a super El Niño on upcoming South American production.

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Aug 06 | Commodity Week

The August 6 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from Ellen Dearden and Naomi Blohm ahead of the upcoming USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The panelists anticipate the USDA will maintain corn and soybean yield estimates near 183 and 53 bushels per acre, respectively, while emphasizing the need to monitor how European drought conditions and South American El Niño weather patterns will impact global grain stocks. The discussion details critical technical trading thresholds for December corn and November soybeans, advising producers to employ defensive marketing strategies, while waiting for potential seasonal harvest lows. Finally, the analysts provide brief outlooks on the livestock sectors—noting strong dairy demand, stable but softening live cattle fundamentals, and a persistently weak hog market—and warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a volatile risk to global agricultural trade.

Panelists
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview

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Jul 30 | Commodity Week

The July 30 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from panelists Matt Bennett, Chip Nellinger, and Jason Winter. The discussion centers on the immediate threat of severe heat and dry weather to crop yields in the Dakotas, alongside a sustained regional shift from wheat to corn and soybean acreage. Jason Winter highlights strong ongoing corn demand from the Pacific Northwest and intensified local soybean competition driven by newly constructed processing plants in North Dakota. The analysts concur that while short-term market movements will be dictated by impending weather forecasts, long-term prices will likely remain supported by shrinking global stocks and robust domestic demand. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East are identified as key drivers sustaining elevated energy and fertilizer costs. Consequently, the panel recommends that producers leverage on-farm storage to maintain long-term crop ownership while pragmatically pricing essential harvest sales.

Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Jason Winter, Columbia Grain International

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Jul 23 | Commodity Week

The July 23 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features agricultural market analysis from panelists Greg Johnson, Dave Chatterton, Curt Kimmel, and emeritus guest Wayne Nelson. The central theme of the program revolves around recent price rallies in the grain markets, with soybeans reaching the $12 range and corn nearing $5. The panelists strongly encourage farmers to focus on securing profitability through incremental, scale-up sales rather than trying to perfectly time the absolute top of the market. Key drivers of these market dynamics include highly variable Midwestern crop conditions—stemming from a wet planting season and localized dry spells—alongside significant global factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, a European drought, the South American El Niño, and the unpredictable nature of Chinese agricultural demand. The episode concludes on a sentimental note as Curt Kimmel announces his retirement at the end of the month, prompting fond farewells and reflections on his long career from his colleagues.

Panelists
- Dave Chatterton, SFMarketing.com
- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Wayne Nelson, WILLAg Emeritus

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Jul 16 | Commodity Week

The July 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (NAFB) Summer Showcase in Kansas City, Missouri, features agricultural analysts Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com and Arlan Suderman of StoneX. The program delves into deep macroeconomic and geopolitical parallels between the current market environment and the 1980s, highlighting how shifts in Chinese demand and escalating global conflicts, particularly new drone-driven disruptions in the Black Sea, are altering international grain and energy trade. The panel examines the operational complexities of domestic biofuel policies, such as the 45Z tax credit and RVO programs, noting that while soybean crushing remains robust, older biomass diesel plants are facing maintenance and cash flow limitations due to delayed regulatory guidelines. Looking ahead to the fall harvest, the experts advise grain producers to carefully monitor regional basis swings, look past short-term fund-driven market volatility, and proactively manage risk by securing early pricing protections.

Panelists 
 - Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting 
 - Arlan Suderman, StoneX

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Jul 02 | Commodity Week

In the July 2 edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and panelists Shane Holtorf, Naomi Blohm, and Matt Bennett review regional disparities in crop conditions, highlighting strong growth in Iowa and Wisconsin against waterlogged, disease-threatened fields in East Central Illinois. Analyzing the USDA Grain Stocks report, the panel notes that while a brief market rally occurred, old crop corn stocks remain near an eight-year high, advising producers to sell before seasonal pressure mounts. New crop corn carryout is projected between 1.80 and 1.90 billion bushels, with prices likely to test harvest lows unless major weather disruptions occur or WASDE reports introduce bullish data. Similarly, despite current resilience driven by strong domestic crush margins, the soybean market faces significant downside risk and technical selling pressure without immediate new crop purchases from China.

Panelists
 - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Windsor, IL
 - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - West Bend, WI
 - Shane Holtorf, LogicAg.com - Alta, IA

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Jun 25 | Commodity Week

The June 25 edition of Commodity Week featured analysis from Arlan Suderman of StoneX, Curt Kimmel of AgMarket .net, and Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing. The panel evaluated the impending June 30 USDA acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports, noting that these figures, alongside developing weather patterns, will establish the primary direction for the markets. Expectations for corn acreage generally reflect a slight decrease from March intentions, while soybean acreage is anticipated to be marginally higher.

Weather remains a dominant factor as the corn crop approaches its critical July pollination window. Elevated temperatures will accelerate growing degree days, but sustained heat combined with high overnight temperatures could negatively impact final yields. The panel also highlighted specific agronomic risks moving into the latter half of the summer. These include the eastward drift of smoke from western wildfires and the potential for southern mold spores to increase disease pressure, making fungicide application decisions crucial for producers this season (CropProtectionNetwork.org).

Significant uncertainty persists regarding international trade commitments on the demand side. The market is closely monitoring China's purchasing pace to determine if the nation will meet its stated targets by the end of the calendar year. Additionally, potential agricultural shipments to Iran, facilitated by the use of frozen assets, represent another unresolved variable that could substantially tighten the overall balance sheet. Until these international demand factors and late-season weather impacts are clarified, producers are exhibiting notable reluctance to make new crop sales at current price levels.

Panelists
 - Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
 - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
 - Arlan Suderman, StoneX

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Jun 18 | Commodity Week

The June 18, 2026, Commodity Week panel analyzed current agricultural market fundamentals, prioritizing export demand, domestic crop conditions, and macroeconomic shifts. China recently purchased 4.8 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, yet long-term fulfillment of their 25-million-metric-ton commitment remains uncertain pending tariff adjustments and sustained export competition from Brazil. Domestically, the market is bracing for upcoming USDA acreage and grain stocks reports, with analysts anticipating slight increases in soybean acreage and noting discrepancies in feed and residual data driven by heavier cattle slaughter weights. The recent Cattle on Feed report indicated a 102% year-over-year inventory, though overall beef production projections remain inexplicably low according to the panel. Furthermore, U.S. corn crop conditions vary drastically based on planting dates, with early-planted corn thriving while late-planted fields struggle against excessive moisture. Finally, macroeconomic volatility is expected to persist as the new Federal Reserve leadership implements a strictly data-driven policy approach, strengthening the U.S. dollar and emphasizing the need for producers to actively execute pricing orders amidst shifting fundamentals.

Panelists
 - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
 - Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com
 - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

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