Commodity Week by WillAg.org and Illinois Extension, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Commodity Week

A weekly wrap-up of the agricultural markets, news, analysis, and weather.

May 07 | Commodity Week

Panelists
- Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

The May 7 edition of Commodity Week features analysts Mike Zuzolo and Garrett Toay discussing current agricultural and energy market conditions. The panel notes that while recent rains have aided corn and soybean planting in parts of Kansas and Illinois, dry conditions have led to significant abandonment of hard red winter wheat in states like Kansas and Nebraska. The analysts draw parallels between tightening supplies in the wheat and crude oil markets, attributing the latter to macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, military actions affecting Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These structural uncertainties, alongside a pending meeting between Trump and Xi and the upcoming USDA WASDE report, are heavily influencing agricultural trade, particularly concerning Chinese demand for US soybeans and the influx of Brazilian beef. Given the high market volatility, both analysts advise producers to rely on paper positions rather than immediate cash sales.

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Apr 30 | Commodity Week

Panelists
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag
- Arlan Suderman, StoneX

The April 30 broadcast of Commodity Week examines agricultural marketing strategies amid geopolitical and economic volatility. Panelists urge producers to utilize current market rallies to execute incremental grain sales for the 2026 and 2027 crop years. The market is currently heavily influenced by speculative fund investments maintaining long positions in grains and cattle, which elevates price floors but increases market volatility. 

Geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing Iranian war and high global energy costs, are driving inflation and creating long-term concerns regarding fertilizer supplies into 2027. Furthermore, anticipation of a mid-May summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi suggests potential shifts in trade agreements, with China likely targeting imports of U.S. beef, pork, and wheat rather than soybeans, alongside complex negotiations regarding biofuel feedstocks and used cooking oil.

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Apr 16 | Commodity Week

Panelists
 - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
 - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net

The April 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, featured panelists Naomi Blohm, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick analyzing the current agricultural market landscape and the geopolitical factors influencing it. A primary focus was the potential shift in planting acres from corn to soybeans across the Midwest, driven by elevated input costs—specifically diesel and fertilizer—and compounded by heavy spring rainfall delaying field work. These fertilizer price spikes are being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have trapped shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf and prompted countries like India to heavily subsidize and secure global fertilizer supplies. The panel also evaluated grain marketing strategies, with Greg Johnson noting farmers still may be holding roughly 30% to 35% of their old crop corn in anticipation of a price rally. However, the experts warned that unless significant weather issues or war-driven crude oil spikes emerge by mid-summer, old crop basis could crash as elevators reach capacity ahead of the fall harvest. Consequently, they urged producers to consider moving their remaining grain sooner rather than later to avoid logistical bottlenecks and dropping prices.

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